Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

Israel’s presumed counterstrike against Iran has proved Joe Biden and David Cameron wrong in their insistence that Israel should just ‘take the win’. Instead, it fought back – and yesterday Iran was trying to pretend that nothing had happened.

This was a profound humiliation for the ayatollahs who just days ago were saying they would deliver punishing retaliation for even the slightest Israeli strike; now they seem to be saying they will do nothing. We don’t yet know what happened at the targets. To save face, the Iranians are unlikely to admit there was any damage. For strategic reasons, Israel has not accepted responsibility and therefore has not made known its damage assessment.

The main target seems to have been Iran’s third city, Isfahan. The Hastam Shikari airforce base is there: it was involved in the April 14 drone and missile attack against Israel. There are drone production factories at Isfahan.

Of perhaps greater significance, the city is at the heart of Iran’s nuclear programme with a research site as well as a processing facility, including stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Although the International Atomic Energy Agency has made clear that no damage was caused to the nuclear site, Israel’s apparent ability to penetrate Iran’s most heavily defended sites will have triggered enormous concern in Tehran as it gets ever closer to obtaining a nuclear weapons capability.

It is possible there may be a pause in the nuclear programme so as not to provoke further attacks until defences can be significantly enhanced. Perhaps Iran may be deterred from launching further direct strikes against Israel as it realises the extent of its vulnerability.

It was vital for Israel to launch a response to Iran’s aggression quickly to avoid an impression of weakness in a region where strength is everything. But among Israel’s calculations on how to calibrate its response will have been the need to build on the international defensive coalition that formed so quickly last week. This is of strategic importance given the range of threats in the Middle East, foremost of which is the array of 150,000 or more missiles in Lebanon, pointing at Israel.

These have been supplied to Hezbollah by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to deter or retaliate against an Israeli attack on Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu will not have wanted to do anything to shake the West’s new resolve against Iran, with the G7 announcing sanctions this week.

In its Gaza campaign, the IDF is getting ready to mount a major assault in Rafah to deal with Hamas’s remaining stronghold and to rescue the hostages being held there. That is Israel’s number one priority at the moment and it does not want to have its military efforts diverted by an escalation with Iran. (more…)