Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 5 December 2023. © Richard Kemp

The West has allowed a new Al Qaida armed with ballistic missiles to form under its very eyes. After their post-9/11 neutralisation in Afghanistan, the greatest fear of the US and its allies was that it would re-emerge under the protection and with the support of another state, possibly acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, a potential alliance between Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein was one of the main drivers of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

That same nightmare scenario now exists with the Houthis. They have seized control over much of Yemen’s state apparatus. They are sponsored by Iran, which funds them and has armed them with ballistic and cruise missiles and attack drones, some with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometres – the operational distance to Israeli territory – as well as anti-ship missiles, remote controlled maritime attack vessels and sea mines.

Since mid October the Houthis have been firing drones and missiles at Israel in ‘solidarity’ with Iran’s other proxies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. On the 31st a ballistic missile was intercepted by the IDF’s Arrow air defence system above the Earth’s atmosphere, marking the first ever example of warfare in space. Since the Gaza war began the Houthis have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea, some with apparent Israeli links.

This is by no means the first time the Houthis have attacked international commercial shipping: in 2016, they attempted to strike two US warships in the Red Sea. They’ve also launched multiple drone and missile strikes against Saudi Arabia and the UAE, some causing significant destruction.

The most recent Houthi attacks were against the USS Carney and several commercial vessels on Sunday. This was a narrow miss: if the American warship had been hit, the West could have been dragged into further conflict. That of course remains a distinct possibility unless the Houthis can be deterred or de-fanged. And then of course there is the immense damage that these attacks are doing to global trade, with the Red Sea providing a vital maritime transit route connecting the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean.

All of that brings into sharp focus a wider Western strategic naivety in the region. Much of the blame lies at the door of Joe Biden. Soon after he took office, without any apparent thought for the geopolitical implications, he de-listed the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organisation; largely, it must be assumed, because his nemesis Donald Trump proscribed them in the first place. (more…)