Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 27 March 2026. © Richard Kemp

Donald Trump is saddling up thousands more ground forces for the Middle East. Despite what some over-excited analysts and commentators might say, we are not about to see a re-run of the Iraq quagmire – at least, not by design.

The main force package seems to be a large special forces group and elements of the renowned US 82nd Airborne Division, the US Army’s paratroop formation. They will join US Marine amphibious assault forces already in the region or en route.

It might be that this build-up is intended to apply psychological pressure to the regime while Trump speaks of negotiations. Or it could be for real, with intent for ground forces to go in if the Iranians refuse to buckle to his demands.

Whatever the plan, these newly-deploying US troops are not there to launch a major ground offensive to invade and occupy the country. For that, a far larger and more powerful force would be needed, including heavy armour and artillery. We don’t know what Trump has in mind, and nor should we, but these forces are most likely to be used in short-term, precise operations to achieve specific military objectives.

These could include securing Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, or seizing critical energy-related facilities such as Kharg Island. It could also include taking key pieces of territory which would make an attempt to re-open the Strait of Hormuz easier.

A more significant prize, however, would be toppling the regime. The US and Israel have already achieved spectacular success in severely degrading the ayatollahs’ ability to continue their aggression against the US, Israel and their Arab neighbours. That has been their central focus since the Islamic Revolution.

But what can be demolished can also be repaired, even if doing so takes decades. And we can be sure that this regime, while it remains in power, will remain hell-bent on exactly that, with the assistance of Russia and China. They might wait until Trump leaves office to start in earnest. But if they remain, we can be sure that eventually they will have to be revisited. (more…)