Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 26 October 2024. © Richard Kemp

Israel’s attacks on Iran this morning were devastating. Dozens of combat planes flew 1,000 miles and are reported to have struck 20 military sites across the country. The primary targets were air defence systems and missile manufacturing facilities. This leaves Tehran more vulnerable to future strikes.

But there are two other consequences of Israel’s raids that are even more significant. First, the ayatollahs, already fearful of a direct, all-out war against a stronger power, will now be even more cowed and may be cautious about any retaliation. There was an indication of that in their statement that Israel had not crossed their red lines with this attack.

Second, they will have intensified fears for their top priority: the stability of their regime. There is significant dissent within the country and this latest dramatic sign of vulnerability will encourage those who seek to bring down the government. The dissidents will not be taken in by Tehran’s bluster that the Israeli strikes were blunted by air defences and caused only limited damage, a lie underlined by threats to Iranian citizens of lengthy prison sentences if they share footage of the strikes.

Nor will they believe the regime’s assertions that Israel was deterred by their warnings against the more significant attack that some had expected in response to repeated Iranian aggression, including the failed barrage of 200 missiles on October 1. Israel’s raid was not powerful enough to deal with the Iranian threat but that has nothing to do with any warnings from Tehran.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, knows only too well that a decisive strike is required. But his military actions have to be calibrated according to what will be tolerated in Washington. Fighting a war on seven battle fronts, plus a hugely important eighth front — political warfare fought in the UN, international courts, and capitals around the world — Israel is heavily dependent on continued US support. (more…)