Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

Hezbollah was the dog that didn’t bark when its Iranian masters came under attack. That’s because it had been muzzled by Israel. Over decades Tehran had built up a massive arsenal of missiles in Lebanon using its number one proxy, Hezbollah. That had a specific purpose which was to deter Jerusalem from attacking Iran, and if it did, to unleash hell across the length and breadth of Israel. But Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities were severely written down last year with huge numbers of missiles and launchers taken out by attacks from ground and air. And Mossad decapitated the terrorist organisation in a breathtaking wave of attacks against terrorist leaders with explosive-laden pagers. The IDF eliminated many others with precision air strikes, including the long-standing Secretary General, Hasan Nasrallah.

Perhaps the ayatollahs should have paid more attention to both elements of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, because they gave a devastating foretaste of what was to come on their own territory. Now, reeling from strike after strike over the last week, its military rudderless and deprived of its primary deterrent, Tehran is having to rely exclusively on an armoury of ballistic missiles to hit back. Its fleets of drones – considered by many to be the future of warfare – have achieved nothing. Of 1,000 launched, not one impacted on Israeli territory.

I have been in various parts of Israel since the start of this war and can confirm that the most widespread effect of Iran’s missile campaign has been sleep deprivation, with most salvoes fired during the night and citizens repeatedly sent running to their bomb shelters. That is not to understate the tragic deaths of 24 Israeli civilians, the wounding of many others and destruction and damage to buildings, the most recent being a direct hit on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. As with all Iranian missile impacts in this war which have struck civilian population centres, firing at a hospital is a war crime. Tehran claimed that it was aiming at a nearby army base but there are no military installations within 2 kilometres. With all the patients inside shelters, fortunately there were only light casualties.

That is one reason why Iran’s barrages have had only limited effect so far. Israel has engineered a highly-developed alert and shelter system, and it is estimated that, had every citizen taken cover as instructed, the death toll would have been only three. There are two other reasons for Tehran’s failed counteroffensive. First, a very sophisticated intelligence and surveillance system that has been able to provide up to half an hour’s warning of most missile launches. Second, ground, air and sea based air defences. The US Navy and Air Force have made a significant contribution, and Israel’s Arrow ballistic missile defence system has been backed up by America’s Thaad and Patriot launchers based inside Israel.

Then there has been the relentless air campaign against Iran’s weapon stocks, launchers and production facilities which has taken out an estimated 40 per cent of launchers and many missiles. Iran has only managed to fire some 400 missiles since the war began, with at least 80-90 per cent successfully intercepted. Just 23 have hit urban areas.

Tehran had by far the most powerful ballistic missile capability in the Middle East, with an arsenal of 2,000-3,000, although many of these did not have the range to reach Israel. Tehran was estimated to have the capability to produce 50 missiles per month which is not adequate to meaningfully replenish its ever-dwindling stocks. In any case, probably nothing like that number can be achieved now following Israel’s attacks on production facilities.

With their military strategy failing, the ayatollahs might decide to change tack, and start using some of their short-range missiles against energy facilities or US military targets in the Gulf. Iran also has anti-ship missiles capable of attacking maritime targets in the region. It has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz to strangle global oil trade. Any of these moves would increase the chances of President Trump’s direct intervention in the war, something that may be imminent in any case. Khamenei, now in a desperate situation, with his most trusted military advisers all dead and the IDF rampant in his skies, seems to fear that the most. His request for a meeting in the White House has been rejected and his foreign ministry is about to meet its appeasement-seeking European counterparts to discuss nuclear disarmament.

Although that will achieve nothing, the last thing the Europeans should be doing now is to throw this tottering terrorist regime any kind of lifeline. Instead they should be joining forces with Israel, at least diplomatically, to hasten the end of Iran’s war on the West, which began at the dawn of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The best outcome is not a badly wounded Khamenei who can lick his wounds and live to fight another day, as the Europeans might like, but a more enlightened Iran under new management that does not have the arrogance to provoke a militarily stronger power and believe it can prevail.