Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

Hezbollah was the dog that didn’t bark when its Iranian masters came under attack. That’s because it had been muzzled by Israel. Over decades Tehran had built up a massive arsenal of missiles in Lebanon using its number one proxy, Hezbollah. That had a specific purpose which was to deter Jerusalem from attacking Iran, and if it did, to unleash hell across the length and breadth of Israel. But Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities were severely written down last year with huge numbers of missiles and launchers taken out by attacks from ground and air. And Mossad decapitated the terrorist organisation in a breathtaking wave of attacks against terrorist leaders with explosive-laden pagers. The IDF eliminated many others with precision air strikes, including the long-standing Secretary General, Hasan Nasrallah.

Perhaps the ayatollahs should have paid more attention to both elements of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, because they gave a devastating foretaste of what was to come on their own territory. Now, reeling from strike after strike over the last week, its military rudderless and deprived of its primary deterrent, Tehran is having to rely exclusively on an armoury of ballistic missiles to hit back. Its fleets of drones – considered by many to be the future of warfare – have achieved nothing. Of 1,000 launched, not one impacted on Israeli territory.

I have been in various parts of Israel since the start of this war and can confirm that the most widespread effect of Iran’s missile campaign has been sleep deprivation, with most salvoes fired during the night and citizens repeatedly sent running to their bomb shelters. That is not to understate the tragic deaths of 24 Israeli civilians, the wounding of many others and destruction and damage to buildings, the most recent being a direct hit on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. As with all Iranian missile impacts in this war which have struck civilian population centres, firing at a hospital is a war crime. Tehran claimed that it was aiming at a nearby army base but there are no military installations within 2 kilometres. With all the patients inside shelters, fortunately there were only light casualties.

That is one reason why Iran’s barrages have had only limited effect so far. Israel has engineered a highly-developed alert and shelter system, and it is estimated that, had every citizen taken cover as instructed, the death toll would have been only three. There are two other reasons for Tehran’s failed counteroffensive. First, a very sophisticated intelligence and surveillance system that has been able to provide up to half an hour’s warning of most missile launches. Second, ground, air and sea based air defences. The US Navy and Air Force have made a significant contribution, and Israel’s Arrow ballistic missile defence system has been backed up by America’s Thaad and Patriot launchers based inside Israel.

Then there has been the relentless air campaign against Iran’s weapon stocks, launchers and production facilities which has taken out an estimated 40 per cent of launchers and many missiles. Iran has only managed to fire some 400 missiles since the war began, with at least 80-90 per cent successfully intercepted. Just 23 have hit urban areas.

Tehran had by far the most powerful ballistic missile capability in the Middle East, with an arsenal of 2,000-3,000, although many of these did not have the range to reach Israel. Tehran was estimated to have the capability to produce 50 missiles per month which is not adequate to meaningfully replenish its ever-dwindling stocks. In any case, probably nothing like that number can be achieved now following Israel’s attacks on production facilities.

With their military strategy failing, the ayatollahs might decide to change tack, and start using some of their short-range missiles against energy facilities or US military targets in the Gulf. Iran also has anti-ship missiles capable of attacking maritime targets in the region. It has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz to strangle global oil trade. Any of these moves would increase the chances of President Trump’s direct intervention in the war, something that may be imminent in any case. Khamenei, now in a desperate situation, with his most trusted military advisers all dead and the IDF rampant in his skies, seems to fear that the most. His request for a meeting in the White House has been rejected and his foreign ministry is about to meet its appeasement-seeking European counterparts to discuss nuclear disarmament.

Although that will achieve nothing, the last thing the Europeans should be doing now is to throw this tottering terrorist regime any kind of lifeline. Instead they should be joining forces with Israel, at least diplomatically, to hasten the end of Iran’s war on the West, which began at the dawn of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The best outcome is not a badly wounded Khamenei who can lick his wounds and live to fight another day, as the Europeans might like, but a more enlightened Iran under new management that does not have the arrogance to provoke a militarily stronger power and believe it can prevail.

There’s a surprising truth that may seem counterintuitive to those watching from the West.

We now have an argument about whether Iran is really in pursuit of a bomb, with an apparent spat between President Trump and his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. In March, she assessed that Iran had not yet decided to build a bomb. That may have been true. But it is also irrelevant. Iran has been enriching uranium to near weapons grade for years.

The International Atomic Energy Agency a few days ago said the Islamic Republic now has enough such material to manufacture around 10 bombs, with the final stages to achieve weapons grade possible within two weeks, according to US intelligence. Iran has some missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. We have seen their ballistic missiles penetrate Israeli air defences in the last few days. The final component is weaponisation, turning weapons grade uranium into a viable nuclear device.

The ability to identify that programme through intelligence has always been a major challenge given it can be achieved very discreetly. Recently Israel confirmed it had intelligence that Iran is now in fact making progress on weaponisation.

So with the components in place, all that would be needed is for Ali Khamanei to give the order to put them together. It would be suicidal to wait until intelligence confirmed that order had been given. And anyway there could be no certainty such a decision would be identified by intelligence.

Given the enormous stakes Israel had no other choice than to strike when it did. There are some risks you do not take. Perhaps the greatest is to allow acquisition of nuclear weapons by a fanatical religious tyranny with a track record of unrestrained violence that repeatedly declares its intention to annihilate you.

No Israelis that I have spoken to over here in the days since Israel launched its pre-emptive war doubt the need for it. Even opposition leaders, sworn political rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are four-square behind his actions, unheard of in this country.

Of course all Israelis recognise the current dangers to themselves, and almost all of them have been forced to take refuge in bomb shelters several times every day since last weekend. But they do understand they would face hugely greater dangers in just sitting back and watching Iran becoming a nuclear armed state.

Another concern is escalation into a region-wide conflict. That is Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 13 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

When I was woken up this morning at 3am by sirens that sounded across Israel I knew exactly what was happening. Now the sirens are sounding here again as Iran attempts to retaliate against Israel’s deadly, effective strikes against its nuclear weapons enterprise.

But the signs had been piling up for the last few days: International Atomic Energy Agency declaring Iran in breach of its obligations, US pulling non-essential staff out of embassies, hospitals in Israel made ready, a warning issued to Hezbollah in Lebanon against attacking; the list goes on. But the signs of the inevitable had also been there for many years before.

Iran has been a rogue state since the ayatollahs seized power in 1979. The Islamic Revolution that year was built on ‘death to Israel’ and ‘death to America’. The US was the ‘Great Satan’, Israel and Britain the ‘Little Satans’. These were not mere words. Iran was behind the suicide bombings that killed 241 US and 58 French military personnel plus six civilians in Beirut in 1983, as well as 63 deaths at the US Embassy there six months before.

Iran’s dirty work was also responsible for the killing of 85 people at a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires in 1994, as well as 29 in an attack on the Israeli embassy in the same city in 1992. Iran and its proxies killed at least 1,100 British, American and allied troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2007 as well as an unknown number of coalition troops during the Afghanistan campaign. They have targeted US bases, international shipping and oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

And they have been attacking and killing Israeli soldiers and civilians for decades. That eventually culminated in the October 7 pogrom in Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and many were taken hostage. There is much more to add to Iran’s catalogue of terror: a bomb factory in London, for instance, that was disrupted by British security services in 2015 and alleged attempted terrorist attacks in the UK leading to arrests last month. Iran has also been the major supplier of drones and missiles to Russia which have been used against civilian and military targets in Ukraine.

For decades the Tehran regime has been working to develop nuclear weapons. Although Iran sometimes paused its programme when it feared punitive action from either the US or Israel, it has refused to stop; its upward trajectory has now reached a point where the IAEA believes it now has enough highly enriched uranium to make at least ten bombs.

Iran’s ballistic missile capability has also been proceeding apace, giving it a nuclear capability to span the region, and of course there are also other more covert means of delivering nuclear weapons. Until recently the missing part of the intelligence jigsaw was weaponisation, the ability to turn fissile material into a viable bomb. Today Israeli prime minister Netanyahu revealed that Iran has indeed been working on that important final step.

With all diplomatic pathways to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear armed state closed off, Israel had no choice but to attack. The alternative would have been unthinkable: a regime that has repeatedly proven its capacity for unlimited violence acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

But Iran’s dictators are now in a desperate situation. Israel has decapitated their armed forces and destroyed significant parts of their offensive capability. The IDF will continue to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and to degrade its capacity to strike, although we don’t yet know whether it will be completely neutralised.

If not, like Hitler in his bunker, the unhinged ayatollahs might try to lash out at oil states in the region – either with their own remaining armoury and or using what terrorist proxies remain to them. They might even attack US bases in the Middle East, which they have threatened to do, even though they know that could bring about their Armageddon.

All of that might lead to insurrection in the country. Much of the population in recent years has reached new heights of hatred for rulers that have oppressed, imprisoned, tortured, murdered and impoverished them. But it is far from clear that there is a viable opposition able to step up; one scenario is perhaps some kind of military coup.

Until then Iran and Israel will trade blows: but my money is on Israel talking less and hitting harder.

Operation Rising Lion has inflicted on Iran the most grievous penalty possible in Middle Eastern culture: humiliation. And the ayatollahs’ attempts to restore honour have only led to even more humiliation. Their retaliation so far has been ineffectual.

Three hundred and fifty ballistic missiles each containing half a ton of high explosives as well as more than 100 drones have killed 24 Israeli civilians and damaged or destroyed a few buildings. Each of these deaths is a tragedy, but this is hardly the devastation repeatedly promised by Khamenei and his henchmen following Israel’s pre-emptive attack. The IDF has shot down around 90 per cent of missiles fired from Iran and only about 5-10 per cent have hit residential areas.

The sporadic missile attacks we have seen so far, only 30-60 in each barrage, were always far less likely to overwhelm Israeli air defences than a smaller number of mass strikes combined with drone swarms. IDF interdiction may have prevented hundreds being fired at a time, but it seems almost as if the Iranians have been trying to show strength to their own people rather than having any real hope of inflicting severe damage on Israel.

They have a dire need to show such strength because all they have shown so far is weakness. Israel has total superiority over Iranian air space. IDF planes can fly as freely over Tehran as they can over Tel Aviv. The ayatollahs have been unable to protect even the upper levels of their military command, which has been decimated almost at a stroke. This is unprecedented in the annals of warfare.

The same goes for some of the most important nuclear scientists who should have been among the most protected people in the country. Heavily guarded nuclear sites have been repeatedly struck, as has energy infrastructure. Substantial numbers of ballistic missiles and drones have been destroyed before they could be launched. Israeli special forces have been operating on the ground in Iran with impunity and the extent of intelligence penetration of the regime and its military seems breathtaking.

An evacuation order from Israel is enough to see huge numbers of Tehran’s citizens on the move. In short, the regime has lost sovereignty over its own territory. Can it survive this and the even more powerful blows that are likely to come? Israel is a long way from the culminating point of its military domination. We have already seen protesters on the streets in large numbers, chanting “death to Khamenei” and “death to the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]”. Multiple car bombs have exploded near government buildings.

Israel denies involvement, so who is doing it? There are many underground groups representing various factions in Iran and they will certainly be emboldened by the increasingly glaring weakness of the regime. The army, not thought to be the greatest fans of Khamenei or his IRGC, perhaps might step into the breach.

Israel is not seeking to impose a new government on the people of Iran. But as a by-product of its actions in the last few days, for the first time since 1979 it is giving an opportunity to Iranians to replace the widely hated dictators with whatever leadership they themselves decide. Prime Minister Netanyahu has appealed directly to the Iranian people to unite against the regime and free themselves from oppression, a message met with widespread enthusiasm among many Iranians.

Other world leaders should also do what they can to encourage an end to the rule of the ayatollahs that have been responsible for so much bloodshed, repression and instability, rather than more empty talk about the dangers of a nuclear Iran accompanied by contradictory calls for de-escalation.