Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

Israel’s presumed counterstrike against Iran has proved Joe Biden and David Cameron wrong in their insistence that Israel should just ‘take the win’. Instead, it fought back – and yesterday Iran was trying to pretend that nothing had happened.

This was a profound humiliation for the ayatollahs who just days ago were saying they would deliver punishing retaliation for even the slightest Israeli strike; now they seem to be saying they will do nothing. We don’t yet know what happened at the targets. To save face, the Iranians are unlikely to admit there was any damage. For strategic reasons, Israel has not accepted responsibility and therefore has not made known its damage assessment.

The main target seems to have been Iran’s third city, Isfahan. The Hastam Shikari airforce base is there: it was involved in the April 14 drone and missile attack against Israel. There are drone production factories at Isfahan.

Of perhaps greater significance, the city is at the heart of Iran’s nuclear programme with a research site as well as a processing facility, including stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Although the International Atomic Energy Agency has made clear that no damage was caused to the nuclear site, Israel’s apparent ability to penetrate Iran’s most heavily defended sites will have triggered enormous concern in Tehran as it gets ever closer to obtaining a nuclear weapons capability.

It is possible there may be a pause in the nuclear programme so as not to provoke further attacks until defences can be significantly enhanced. Perhaps Iran may be deterred from launching further direct strikes against Israel as it realises the extent of its vulnerability.

It was vital for Israel to launch a response to Iran’s aggression quickly to avoid an impression of weakness in a region where strength is everything. But among Israel’s calculations on how to calibrate its response will have been the need to build on the international defensive coalition that formed so quickly last week. This is of strategic importance given the range of threats in the Middle East, foremost of which is the array of 150,000 or more missiles in Lebanon, pointing at Israel.

These have been supplied to Hezbollah by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to deter or retaliate against an Israeli attack on Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu will not have wanted to do anything to shake the West’s new resolve against Iran, with the G7 announcing sanctions this week.

In its Gaza campaign, the IDF is getting ready to mount a major assault in Rafah to deal with Hamas’s remaining stronghold and to rescue the hostages being held there. That is Israel’s number one priority at the moment and it does not want to have its military efforts diverted by an escalation with Iran. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 16 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

Yesterday marked one year since the war in Sudan started. There, Iranian manufactured drones fielded in the last few months have been turning things round for the army against the Rapid Security Force militias. Drones have also been used extensively by Tehran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen, attacking international shipping in the Red Sea.

In Ukraine, Shahed drones have been used in their thousands by Putin’s forces, especially to target civilian population centres and critical infrastructure. Many people have been killed and huge damage inflicted on Ukraine’s food and energy sectors by attacking grain silos and power plants. In 2019, drones were used by Iran or one of its proxies to attack Saudi oil installations. They have also been used in multiple attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria.

Combat drones have been with us now for several years, but the remarkable increase in Iranian production and export over the last two years is altering the impact of asymmetric warfare by giving far greater potency than previously imagined to a much wider range of state and non-state actors. They are highly flexible and can be launched from a wide range of platforms including trucks, shipping containers and vessels. They can be readily disassembled and re-assembled and easily transported and concealed. As the Russians have frequently done in Ukraine, drones can be deployed in swarms to overwhelm air defences.

The most dramatic attack to date using Iranian drones came, of course, this weekend. Repelling that bombardment is estimated to have cost up to 1.5 billion dollars, a significant amount of which must have been expended on downing the drones. This illustrates one of the most pressing problems facing our national defences today.

Both attack and reconnaissance drones, which also endanger deployed forces as shown in Sudan, can be very cheap, as little as $2,000. Even the Shahed drones which have been used extensively in Ukraine and in the attack against Israel, can deliver large explosive charges with great precision at ranges of around 2,000 miles, at a cost of only $20,000-$50,000. Some of the missiles that have been used to intercept these drones can cost upwards of a million dollars a shot and sometimes much more. In broad terms, the earlier on the flight path they can be knocked out of the sky, the better the chances of preventing them from hitting the target, but the higher the price tag.

Iran’s drone production and export, as well as Russia’s use of drones and other missiles in Ukraine has given a long overdue wake-up call to Western countries who are now applying greater focus and resources to counter-drone technology as well as missile defence. Israel, under the most immediate threat for many years, has long been leading the way. It expects to field Iron Beam, a laser interceptor for drones and missiles, in the near future. It is the first Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 13 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

I’m writing from Israel where the country is tonight braced for a wave of drone attacks from Iran.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) warned at around 11pm that at least 100 drones had been launched. This was followed by an announcement from Iran’s state-run news agency that ballistic missiles have also been launched.

Israel has been expecting Iranian strikes since conducting an air strike on April 1 that killed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in Damascus.

Since then there has been some apprehension on the streets, but daily life has continued pretty much as normal, although tonight the IDF updated instructions for the population on the precautions they need to take.

Meanwhile, the IDF has been stepping up its air defences over the last 10 days, including calling up specialist reservists. Israel has the best anti-missile defences in the world, and they will do their best to down most or all weapons before reaching Israeli airspace. However that will not be easy to achieve, with large swarms of drones either preceded or followed up by missiles.

The commander of US forces in the Middle East has been in Israel in the last few days, coordinating with the IDF, and US forces will assist Israel in intercepting the drones, including by providing airborne early-warning systems. Israel’s other allies may also provide support, and the Israeli prime minister specifically thanked Great Britain and France for their support.

There is also a significant threat from Lebanon, where the Iranian proxy Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles pointing at Israel. They have been firing rockets and drones into the Israeli border area almost daily since the Hamas attack on Oct 7. It is possible that Hezbollah might launch an intensive barrage to coincide with the arrival of the weapons from Iran, in an attempt to overwhelm air defences.

Israel will have no choice other than to respond to this Iranian attack, as every country would. The IDF has of course been preparing for that as well, perhaps by striking military targets inside Iran and other countries from which any missiles or drones are launched.

As the US sought to prevent Iran from attacking Israel by intensive diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration will likely try to pressure Israel to limit its retaliation, in other words to de-escalate. However, even if limited damage is inflicted in this attack, Israel should strike back hard – perhaps with even greater strength – to deter further attacks.

While hostilities directly with Iran are unlikely to expand beyond air attacks and possibly naval conflict, a major attack by Hezbollah Continue reading →

Article published by Ynetnews.com,  3 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

The deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers were a terrible tragedy. We can only admire the courage and humanity of these men and women, and others like them who work to alleviate the suffering of the civilian population, while knowing they could be killed or seriously wounded in a war zone where by definition nowhere can be safe. While combatants on both sides have an absolute duty to adhere to the laws of war and where possible avoid killing uninvolved civilians, the ultimate responsibility for all killings in this war — including the WCK workers — lies with Hamas.

The IDF has accepted direct responsibility for these deaths and initiated an independent investigation by the Fact Finding Assessment Mechanism. Until that investigation is complete we won’t know exactly how these strikes came about. However, knowing the ethos of the IDF and its strict adherence to the laws of war, it is unthinkable that the action was deliberately intended to kill aid workers.

Some have suggested, however, that was, in fact, the purpose of the strikes. But setting aside morality and legality, what would have been the gain in purposely killing aid workers? The understandably harsh global condemnation would have been entirely predictable by anyone contemplating such an evil plan.

Those who do say the strikes were obviously intended to kill the WCK workers because of the prominent vehicle markings have presumably never observed drone optics at night. Indeed the IDF Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevy, has said that a preliminary assessment shows the incident occurred as a result of ‘misidentification’.

The implication of that is whoever ordered and conducted the strikes believed the vehicles that were hit contained terrorists, suggesting incorrect intelligence or failure of surveillance, possibly compounded by human error. There are many variables. We don’t yet know whether those who conducted the strikes were acting according to IDF rules of engagement or were negligent. Sometimes soldiers and commanders behave recklessly or irresponsibly in all armies including the IDF.

Nor do we know whether accurate information on their movements was passed by the WCK staff or whether it was correctly understood by the IDF or shared with the strike commander. We do, however, know that differentiating between enemy forces and uninvolved civilians is made much more challenging by Hamas terrorists’ use of human shields, always moving and fighting in civilian clothes and sometimes using civilian vehicles such as ambulances and aid trucks.

Unfortunately, nightmares like this occur frequently in the fog of war, with its confusion, chaos, danger, death, destruction, mental overload, human pressure, and technical failure. For example, during President Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, a Continue reading →

Article published in The Jewish Chronicle, 3 April 2024. © Richard Kemp

There is no doubting Israel’s spectacular military success so far in Gaza. I have been on the ground inside the Strip several times since the war began, and have seen first hand the remarkable combat actions of the IDF.

They have all but taken apart Hamas as a coherent fighting organisation, while doing everything in their power to minimise civilian casualties and working round the clock to get humanitarian aid to the Gazan population, which I have also witnessed.

Despite all this, the IDF has not yet accomplished its mission in Gaza: to destroy Hamas’s ability to threaten Israel and govern the Gaza Strip and to rescue the hostages. To achieve that, the IDF must launch a major offensive against the four Hamas battalions in Rafah. Focused now on its own survival, Hamas is determined to prevent that from happening and increasingly the international community seems intent on helping them.

That was underlined this week when the UN Security Council demanded a ceasefire in Gaza, which Britain supported and the US failed to veto. That historically shameful resolution was the culmination of a decades-long propaganda campaign under which Israel is an illegitimate entity. As the narrative goes, whatever is done to Israel, including the October 7 massacre, it had it coming; and whatever Israel does in its own defence, including finishing off Hamas in Rafah, it is wrong and uniquely evil.

Many supposed military experts say Israel should not mount an offensive in Rafah. I have not heard any of them put forward a single viable alternative. The White House is apparently recommending a strategy based on pinpoint, clinical strikes into the city, targeting Hamas leaders. Their template seems to be US special forces operations in Afghanistan, and we all know how that ultimately worked out. The Taliban survived, gained strength and eventually re-conquered the country. Under Taliban rule, Isis in Afghanistan has launched multiple global terrorist attacks including last week’s massacre in Moscow, according to US intelligence. A salutary lesson for those who think Israel does not need to finish off Hamas in Gaza.

In any case, in a heavily defended area like Rafah, no military operations can be ‘clinical’. In February, Operation Golden Hand showed us the necessity for overwhelming violence to enable special forces to extricate a single Israeli hostage from Rafah. The rescue mission had to be backed up by air strikes which reportedly killed dozens of people to enable the withdrawal of the hostage and the rescuers. Left intact, the Hamas battalions in Rafah will fight furiously against any ‘pinpoint’ raids, which will not achieve the level of surprise of Operation Golden Hand if they become part of a series of such operations.

Only once they have destroyed the fighting integrity of those four battalions will the IDF be in a position to exercise decisive control over the city and ultimately eliminate Hamas. The way this might Continue reading →