Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 20 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

It looks like International Criminal Court justices will soon decide whether to issue arrest warrants against Israel’s Prime Minister and Defence Minister. The very prospect of this is nothing short of outrageous.

Successive ICC Chief Prosecutors have long had Israel in their crosshairs, and Hamas’s October orgy of mass murder, rape, torture and kidnapping gave British lawyer Karim Khan, the current incumbent, the pernicious excuse to move forward. Not against the Hamas terrorist perpetrators, of course, but against Israel.

To make the point that everyone is equal under the law, Khan requested arrest warrants concurrently for Hamas and Israeli leaders. That obviously would have zero effect on Hamas, already designated terrorists around the world and with absolutely nothing to lose. A meaningless, symbolic gesture – you might think.

But it is far, far worse than that. Creating a false equivalence between arch terrorists whose currency is blood and suffering and the leaders of a democratic state defending their people from attack is nothing short of morally bankrupt. It is like indicting Osama Bin Laden and President George W Bush at the same time. Or dragging Winston Churchill into the dock at Nuremberg beside Heinrich Himmler.

The High Level Military Group, ten former chiefs of staff, senior officers and cabinet ministers from Nato countries, of which I am a member, has submitted to the court a strong professional objection to Khan’s schemes. The HLMG, whose members are from the US, UK, Spain, France, Italy and Finland, were in Israel in July.

Among other military issues, we focused on Khan’s allegations that the Israeli ministers intentionally attacked civilians in Gaza and intentionally used starvation as a method of war. In our submission, Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 13 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

Vladimir Putin is not the only world leader who has been humiliated by Ukraine’s unexpected thrust into Kursk – the first major assault into Russian territory since the Second World War – though it has certainly achieved that. Despite his attempts to put on a brave face, the Russian president is undoubtedly rattled. On Monday, he was seen reprimanding senior officials over what they could and could not say about the incursion, no doubt concerned about the possibilities for regime destabilisation if it cannot be rapidly contained.

But this bold move also exposes the cowardice of Ukraine’s allies. Putin told his officials: “The West is fighting us with the hands of Ukrainians.” If so, they continue to be tied behind Kyiv’s back. If the Russian army manages to get its act together, it has the killing power to hurl Ukrainian forces back behind their own borders. Russian troops have been counter-attacking and will continue to do so with ever-greater ferocity. In the face of that, President Zelensky has appealed to his Western allies to allow long-range weapons to be used to defend his soldiers, for example to hit Russian airfields used to strike the advancing troops, as well as roads and railways to bring up reinforcements.

British Storm Shadow missiles could be a game-changer in this battle, but the Government appears unwilling to allow them to be used to their full potential. According to a No 10 spokesman: “There has been no change in the UK’s position… We are clear that equipment provided by the UK is intended for the defence of Ukraine.” What does Sir Keir Starmer think this attack into Russia is all about, other than the defence of Ukraine? How would the Second World War have worked out if the prime minister had not allowed British and American bombs to fall on German land?

Joe Biden is reportedly taking the same line as Starmer, refusing to permit much-needed ATACMS long-range missiles to support the Ukrainian offensive. This has been the wretched story throughout this war, with Western allies making policy not on the basis of Ukraine’s vital defensive needs but with an unfounded fear of Continue reading →

Article published in The Sunday Telegraph, 7 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

In an audacious armoured assault into the Kursk region of Russia, Ukrainian armed forces have advanced further than either side in almost two years. The attack by at least two brigades took the Kremlin by complete surprise. Or at least it was launched and seized significant territory before any counter move could put a stop to it. So much for the supposedly transparent battlefields of the 21st century.

The advantages of surprise in war are transient but even after four days fighting, Russian forces have yet to contain the incursion. That’s hardly surprising given the thinly spread defences along this part of the border. So far local irregular forces and conscripts have been sent in and at least one battalion of reaction forces was apparently largely destroyed by what seems to have been a long-range missile strike.

So far Kyiv has not commented on its objectives for this new offensive; entirely right when it is so important to keep the enemy guessing.

Whatever the strategic rationale, this is a substantial investment in forces that could potentially be destroyed or cut off at a time when Ukraine is short of troops and failing to hold back steady Russian advances in Donbas. It is a huge morale boost at a time when the country had reached the lowest point since the earliest days of the war.

But important though that is, it doesn’t seem adequate justification to take such a risk. Militarily, this operation could be aimed at reducing pressure elsewhere on the front lines, by forcing the Russians to redeploy significant forces to deal with it, something that may already be in the pipeline.

Some have also speculated that Kyiv’s objective might be to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. That would be a major prize, and the risks of fallout would severely hamper efforts to recapture it. But it is around 40km beyond the ground Ukraine is currently fighting on and almost certainly out of reach. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 7 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

Putin’s war against Ukraine and the West has spilled into Africa and the Middle East. Most recently, Kyiv claims to have supplied rebel groups in Mali with intelligence that led to an attack against Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in which 84 were reportedly killed.

Wagner fought in the war against Ukraine until its now deceased leader Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an abortive coup against the Kremlin last year. Since then they have expanded operations in the Sahel and central Africa and have now been re-branded from the name of Hitler’s favourite composer to a military unit he created in 1941, the Africa Corps.

While fighting an attritional war against Russian aggression, Ukraine has been hamstrung by lily-livered restrictions on use of Western supplied munitions to go on the offensive inside Russian sovereign territory. Nevertheless Kyiv has taken the fight to the Russians wherever it can, using its own drones as well as ground forces. That has had limited effect but has diverted some Russian defensive assets away from the front as well as providing an important boost to Ukrainian morale.

Meanwhile Kyiv has sought military opportunities even further afield, perhaps in an echo of Churchill’s Special Operations Executive which sent military operatives to establish a “second front” in Europe before D-Day was even a possibility. Since at least last year, Ukrainian special forces have endeavoured to damage Russian military capabilities by attacking elsewhere in the world.

In May, General Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said: “We conduct operations aimed at reducing Russian military potential anywhere where it’s possible”. That includes Sudan, where Russian mercenaries are supporting the rebel Rapid Support Forces which have been fighting against government troops since last spring. Moscow’s primary purpose was to secure gold supplies facilitated by the rebels to fight the war in Ukraine, circumventing Western sanctions. Working to disrupt those supplies, Ukraine has provided the embattled government forces with drones and military training, and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly carried out attacks against Russian mercenaries. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Mail, 6 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

For a seafaring nation that once counted itself among the world’s great naval powers, the state of Britain’s submarine fleet is both an outrage and a humiliation.

It could also leave us open to catastrophic acts of sabotage by our enemies, with cables, pipelines and wind farms particularly vulnerable.

The global economy could not function without the 800,000 miles of undersea fibre-optic cabling criss-crossing the world’s oceans that are responsible for carrying 97 per cent of international communications and $10 trillion of financial transfers every day.

In a digital age, these cables have never been more essential and, if they were to be disabled, the world would be plunged into a devastating depression. As a report published by the Policy Exchange think-tank put it: ‘Short of nuclear or biological warfare, it is difficult to think of a threat that could be more justifiably described as existential than that posed by the catastrophic failure of undersea cable networks as a result of hostile action.’

It added: ‘In the words of the managing director of one major telecoms firm, “Cascading failures could immobilise much of the international telecommunications system and internet… The effect on international finance, military logistics, medicine, commerce and agriculture in a global economy would be profound … Electronic funds transfers, credit card transactions and international bank reconciliations would slow…such an event would cause a global depression.”’

Such an outcome is all too possible given how vulnerable these cables are. While they are engineered to the ‘five nines’ standard – meaning they are reliable 99.999 per cent of the time – they are highly vulnerable to attacks by enemy forces.

Typically just over an inch in diameter, they consist of fibre optics – strands of glass as thin as a hair – in the centre, surrounded by galvanised steel wire armouring and then, on the outside, a plastic coating. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 4 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

Labour is in denial over the danger to this country from Iran, and appears to be prioritising conciliation of its own anti-Israel supporters above our national security. There is surely no other explanation for the Government threatening an arms embargo on Israel as it fights a seven-front war directed from Tehran. If proof were needed of Iran’s controlling hand in this widespread regional aggression, the Islamic Republic’s permanent mission to the UN has now threatened that its proxy Hezbollah will soon be striking deep into Israel and will deliberately attack civilian targets.

That might be nothing new for Hezbollah or Iran, but such a blatant announcement of planned war crimes shows how emboldened the regime has become. It is being strengthened by the appeasement of its leaders and the condemnation of the country it is attacking by much of the Western media, international bodies such as the UN and by governments like ours.

The message being delivered by the rumoured decision to freeze new contracts for military equipment is that Israel is committing war crimes. Why else would you deny your ally munitions in a time of war? Yet Labour knows this isn’t true. The Defence Secretary, John Healey, and the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, were both in Israel this week, and the Attorney General had been there a few days earlier. All were briefed in detail on the reality of Israel’s military operations, which they know anyway because Britain’s military chiefs and diplomats are in close contact with the Israeli government and armed forces.

It increasingly appears that the Labour Party and its supporters are less changed than many hoped after Jeremy Corbyn’s days as leader. Mollifying anti-Israel supporters now seems to transcend sticking up for our most important ally in the Middle East and, by doing so, supporting our own national interests.

The Government’s stance is also a counterbalance to the Royal Air Force’s probable role in defending Israel if the expected large-scale attack comes from Iran and its proxies in the coming days. RAF jets are preparing now to take to the skies to help intercept the missile Continue reading →

Article published by Ynetnews.com,  1 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

The elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, presumably by Israel, contains a shattering double message. First to Iran: that the IDF can strike where, when and against whomever it wants inside their country. Second to Hamas: that their leaders are no longer safe anywhere in the world and never will be.

The devastating blow in Iran’s capital at the time of the new president’s inauguration redoubles previous messages delivered to the ayatollahs. For example, they were humiliated when Israel repelled hundreds of missiles and drones fired into the country on April 14.

Insult was added to injury when Israel struck back at the most heavily defended place in Iran, Isfahan, the center of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran’s forces were unable to even detect, let alone shoot down, Israel’s missiles.

We will have to see the extent to which Haniyeh’s killing deters Iranian belligerence. But one thing is certain: This further sign of impotence will encourage the growing dissent inside Iran against a repressive regime that has destroyed the country’s economy while investing so much in imperialist aggression across the region. Whatever their response now, the ayatollahs can’t afford to risk much more humiliation.

For Hamas, a leading Iranian proxy, Israel’s action will resound throughout what is left of the movement. Hamas in Gaza is already on its knees, with thousands of terrorists killed and captured, many miles of tunnels blown up and munitions seized and destroyed. It is no longer able to operate as a coherent military organization and its supply lines from Egypt have been cut. The terrorist leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has been forced into survival mode. His military lieutenant, Mohammed Deif, was killed in an Israeli air strike earlier this month that was a tremendous blow to the organization. I saw for myself last week inside Gaza the extent to which the IDF has now secured freedom of operations everywhere. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 12 July 2024. © Richard Kemp

Sir Keir Starmer has humiliated Britain, embarrassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and handed an undeserved victory to Russia at his first international summit as Prime Minister. It’s one thing to flip-flop on domestic policies but quite another, and far more dangerous, to do a screeching U-turn on a vital strategic subject with the eyes of the world on him.

But that’s precisely what he has achieved on the crucial issue of Storm Shadow missiles.

Only a couple of days ago, the international press hailed a new, more hawkish policy from the Government as Starmer suggested that Kyiv would be permitted to fire British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, lifting previous restrictions on their use. That decision was greeted enthusiastically by Zelensky, who added that he had discussed operational implementation with Starmer. Inevitably, the Kremlin condemned the move as a dangerous escalation.

A day later, however, Downing Street clarified that Ukraine will not be able to use Storm Shadow to attack into Russia after all. What’s going on? Pressure from the White House, cold feet in the face of Moscow’s outrage, or bungling by Starmer? Whichever it is, it is shambolic.

The first decision was the right one. For over two years, Russia has been hitting any corner of Ukraine it likes. It took months for Britain and the US to summon up the courage to supply Ukrainian forces with the long-range missiles they needed to hit back. But both countries, fearing Putin’s wrath, hogtied Kyiv by insisting they not be used against Russian targets outside Ukraine.

That has left Moscow free to build up supplies, deploy forces, and launch air attacks from within Russia with virtual impunity. We were Continue reading →