Article published in The Sunday Telegraph, 7 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

In an audacious armoured assault into the Kursk region of Russia, Ukrainian armed forces have advanced further than either side in almost two years. The attack by at least two brigades took the Kremlin by complete surprise. Or at least it was launched and seized significant territory before any counter move could put a stop to it. So much for the supposedly transparent battlefields of the 21st century.

The advantages of surprise in war are transient but even after four days fighting, Russian forces have yet to contain the incursion. That’s hardly surprising given the thinly spread defences along this part of the border. So far local irregular forces and conscripts have been sent in and at least one battalion of reaction forces was apparently largely destroyed by what seems to have been a long-range missile strike.

So far Kyiv has not commented on its objectives for this new offensive; entirely right when it is so important to keep the enemy guessing.

Whatever the strategic rationale, this is a substantial investment in forces that could potentially be destroyed or cut off at a time when Ukraine is short of troops and failing to hold back steady Russian advances in Donbas. It is a huge morale boost at a time when the country had reached the lowest point since the earliest days of the war.

But important though that is, it doesn’t seem adequate justification to take such a risk. Militarily, this operation could be aimed at reducing pressure elsewhere on the front lines, by forcing the Russians to redeploy significant forces to deal with it, something that may already be in the pipeline.

Some have also speculated that Kyiv’s objective might be to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. That would be a major prize, and the risks of fallout would severely hamper efforts to recapture it. But it is around 40km beyond the ground Ukraine is currently fighting on and almost certainly out of reach. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 7 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

Putin’s war against Ukraine and the West has spilled into Africa and the Middle East. Most recently, Kyiv claims to have supplied rebel groups in Mali with intelligence that led to an attack against Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in which 84 were reportedly killed.

Wagner fought in the war against Ukraine until its now deceased leader Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an abortive coup against the Kremlin last year. Since then they have expanded operations in the Sahel and central Africa and have now been re-branded from the name of Hitler’s favourite composer to a military unit he created in 1941, the Africa Corps.

While fighting an attritional war against Russian aggression, Ukraine has been hamstrung by lily-livered restrictions on use of Western supplied munitions to go on the offensive inside Russian sovereign territory. Nevertheless Kyiv has taken the fight to the Russians wherever it can, using its own drones as well as ground forces. That has had limited effect but has diverted some Russian defensive assets away from the front as well as providing an important boost to Ukrainian morale.

Meanwhile Kyiv has sought military opportunities even further afield, perhaps in an echo of Churchill’s Special Operations Executive which sent military operatives to establish a “second front” in Europe before D-Day was even a possibility. Since at least last year, Ukrainian special forces have endeavoured to damage Russian military capabilities by attacking elsewhere in the world.

In May, General Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said: “We conduct operations aimed at reducing Russian military potential anywhere where it’s possible”. That includes Sudan, where Russian mercenaries are supporting the rebel Rapid Support Forces which have been fighting against government troops since last spring. Moscow’s primary purpose was to secure gold supplies facilitated by the rebels to fight the war in Ukraine, circumventing Western sanctions. Working to disrupt those supplies, Ukraine has provided the embattled government forces with drones and military training, and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly carried out attacks against Russian mercenaries. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Mail, 6 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

For a seafaring nation that once counted itself among the world’s great naval powers, the state of Britain’s submarine fleet is both an outrage and a humiliation.

It could also leave us open to catastrophic acts of sabotage by our enemies, with cables, pipelines and wind farms particularly vulnerable.

The global economy could not function without the 800,000 miles of undersea fibre-optic cabling criss-crossing the world’s oceans that are responsible for carrying 97 per cent of international communications and $10 trillion of financial transfers every day.

In a digital age, these cables have never been more essential and, if they were to be disabled, the world would be plunged into a devastating depression. As a report published by the Policy Exchange think-tank put it: ‘Short of nuclear or biological warfare, it is difficult to think of a threat that could be more justifiably described as existential than that posed by the catastrophic failure of undersea cable networks as a result of hostile action.’

It added: ‘In the words of the managing director of one major telecoms firm, “Cascading failures could immobilise much of the international telecommunications system and internet… The effect on international finance, military logistics, medicine, commerce and agriculture in a global economy would be profound … Electronic funds transfers, credit card transactions and international bank reconciliations would slow…such an event would cause a global depression.”’

Such an outcome is all too possible given how vulnerable these cables are. While they are engineered to the ‘five nines’ standard – meaning they are reliable 99.999 per cent of the time – they are highly vulnerable to attacks by enemy forces.

Typically just over an inch in diameter, they consist of fibre optics – strands of glass as thin as a hair – in the centre, surrounded by galvanised steel wire armouring and then, on the outside, a plastic coating. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 4 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

Labour is in denial over the danger to this country from Iran, and appears to be prioritising conciliation of its own anti-Israel supporters above our national security. There is surely no other explanation for the Government threatening an arms embargo on Israel as it fights a seven-front war directed from Tehran. If proof were needed of Iran’s controlling hand in this widespread regional aggression, the Islamic Republic’s permanent mission to the UN has now threatened that its proxy Hezbollah will soon be striking deep into Israel and will deliberately attack civilian targets.

That might be nothing new for Hezbollah or Iran, but such a blatant announcement of planned war crimes shows how emboldened the regime has become. It is being strengthened by the appeasement of its leaders and the condemnation of the country it is attacking by much of the Western media, international bodies such as the UN and by governments like ours.

The message being delivered by the rumoured decision to freeze new contracts for military equipment is that Israel is committing war crimes. Why else would you deny your ally munitions in a time of war? Yet Labour knows this isn’t true. The Defence Secretary, John Healey, and the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, were both in Israel this week, and the Attorney General had been there a few days earlier. All were briefed in detail on the reality of Israel’s military operations, which they know anyway because Britain’s military chiefs and diplomats are in close contact with the Israeli government and armed forces.

It increasingly appears that the Labour Party and its supporters are less changed than many hoped after Jeremy Corbyn’s days as leader. Mollifying anti-Israel supporters now seems to transcend sticking up for our most important ally in the Middle East and, by doing so, supporting our own national interests.

The Government’s stance is also a counterbalance to the Royal Air Force’s probable role in defending Israel if the expected large-scale attack comes from Iran and its proxies in the coming days. RAF jets are preparing now to take to the skies to help intercept the missile Continue reading →

Article published by Ynetnews.com,  1 August 2024. © Richard Kemp

The elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, presumably by Israel, contains a shattering double message. First to Iran: that the IDF can strike where, when and against whomever it wants inside their country. Second to Hamas: that their leaders are no longer safe anywhere in the world and never will be.

The devastating blow in Iran’s capital at the time of the new president’s inauguration redoubles previous messages delivered to the ayatollahs. For example, they were humiliated when Israel repelled hundreds of missiles and drones fired into the country on April 14.

Insult was added to injury when Israel struck back at the most heavily defended place in Iran, Isfahan, the center of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran’s forces were unable to even detect, let alone shoot down, Israel’s missiles.

We will have to see the extent to which Haniyeh’s killing deters Iranian belligerence. But one thing is certain: This further sign of impotence will encourage the growing dissent inside Iran against a repressive regime that has destroyed the country’s economy while investing so much in imperialist aggression across the region. Whatever their response now, the ayatollahs can’t afford to risk much more humiliation.

For Hamas, a leading Iranian proxy, Israel’s action will resound throughout what is left of the movement. Hamas in Gaza is already on its knees, with thousands of terrorists killed and captured, many miles of tunnels blown up and munitions seized and destroyed. It is no longer able to operate as a coherent military organization and its supply lines from Egypt have been cut. The terrorist leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has been forced into survival mode. His military lieutenant, Mohammed Deif, was killed in an Israeli air strike earlier this month that was a tremendous blow to the organization. I saw for myself last week inside Gaza the extent to which the IDF has now secured freedom of operations everywhere. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 12 July 2024. © Richard Kemp

Sir Keir Starmer has humiliated Britain, embarrassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and handed an undeserved victory to Russia at his first international summit as Prime Minister. It’s one thing to flip-flop on domestic policies but quite another, and far more dangerous, to do a screeching U-turn on a vital strategic subject with the eyes of the world on him.

But that’s precisely what he has achieved on the crucial issue of Storm Shadow missiles.

Only a couple of days ago, the international press hailed a new, more hawkish policy from the Government as Starmer suggested that Kyiv would be permitted to fire British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, lifting previous restrictions on their use. That decision was greeted enthusiastically by Zelensky, who added that he had discussed operational implementation with Starmer. Inevitably, the Kremlin condemned the move as a dangerous escalation.

A day later, however, Downing Street clarified that Ukraine will not be able to use Storm Shadow to attack into Russia after all. What’s going on? Pressure from the White House, cold feet in the face of Moscow’s outrage, or bungling by Starmer? Whichever it is, it is shambolic.

The first decision was the right one. For over two years, Russia has been hitting any corner of Ukraine it likes. It took months for Britain and the US to summon up the courage to supply Ukrainian forces with the long-range missiles they needed to hit back. But both countries, fearing Putin’s wrath, hogtied Kyiv by insisting they not be used against Russian targets outside Ukraine.

That has left Moscow free to build up supplies, deploy forces, and launch air attacks from within Russia with virtual impunity. We were Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Mail, 3 July 2024. © Richard Kemp

It is no exaggeration to say that Britons today are living through the most dangerous geopolitical period since the Second World War.

The threat is all around us: from ever-multiplying jihadi terrorism, a resurgent Iran, a muscle-flexing Russia waging its unjust war in Ukraine and even from China, which only two months ago GCHQ director Anne Keast-Butler warned posed a ‘genuine and increasing’ cyber risk to the UK.

It is against this bleak and unsettling backdrop that, if the polls prove correct, Sir Keir Starmer will be appointed our country’s new prime minister on Friday.

It is a prospect that profoundly alarms me.

As the Mail reported on Tuesday, former Ministry of Defence chief Dr Rob Johnson has just issued a devastating assessment of our ever-depleting military capability, warning that a country once renowned for its might is now so short of infrastructure, personnel and weapons that we are, as Dr Johnson put it, unprepared for a ‘conflict of any scale’.

What a terrifying prediction that is — a state of affairs that, I believe, would sharply deteriorate under a Labour government.

Nor is this just my view as a former commanding officer who saw action in some of the world’s fiercest warzones, but one shared by many senior military figures, both retired and operational, with whom I speak often.

The numbers speak for themselves: When I joined the army in 1977, it boasted a regular fighting strength of about 150,000. Today, those numbers have diminished to less than half that at around 73,000. As Dr Johnson made plain, it is not just people we lack either: we are desperately short of ammunition, ships and aircraft too.

Yes, it is only fair to point out that successive governments from both sides of the House have presided over this diminishment of our Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 3 July 2024. © Richard Kemp

Kyiv has been told that, before it can join Nato, it must fix its problems with corruption. These are very real: the latest Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Ukraine below Belarus and Kazakhstan. But that is not the true reason why there will be no good news on accession for Zelensky at Nato’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington next week.

The simple reality is that very few in Nato wants to let Ukraine in, despite endless platitudes including a declaration by the North Atlantic Council at Vilnius last year that ‘Ukraine’s future is in Nato’. There has been discussion about taking that further at the July summit, but Joe Biden vehemently opposes anything more than the meaningless formulation of ‘a well-lit bridge’ to Nato membership. The best he is willing to do is sweeten the pill with a 10-year bilateral defence pact that changes very little and, tellingly, is cancellable with six months’ notice.

We have seen Sweden and Finland become Nato members in the blink of an eye and with no need for any kind of a bridge. That won’t happen for Ukraine. With Putin’s battles raging, all of the member states know that they would effectively be at war with Russia from the moment of Ukrainian accession.

Zelensky has been pressing for a solid guarantee of Nato membership ‘after the war’. But when will that be? Putin is not going to withdraw his forces, and without a surge of Western military support at a scale not so far contemplated by the West, Ukraine will not be able to push them out. That leaves an endless war or a frozen conflict at best. Whether the latter results from a negotiated settlement or battlefield paralysis, it will certainly re-ignite while Putin or anyone like him occupies the Kremlin. Well aware of that harsh reality, which Nato leader is going to sign up his country’s young men and women to fight against Russia at an unknown point in the future and potentially within his own electoral cycle?

Putin has drawn us into a trap which damns Nato if it accepts Ukraine and damns it if it doesn’t. According to US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, ‘Nato is the most powerful and successful Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 28 June 2024. © Richard Kemp

Russian hackers have caused chaos in the NHS and put patients in danger. This month, one of the most serious cyber attacks we have ever faced hit London hospitals and GP surgeries by locking pathology service providers out of their own IT systems. This has forced more than 1,100 operations to be postponed, including cancer treatments and organ transplants. Thousands of outpatient appointments have been cancelled and vast numbers of patients’ records stolen, some of which have been published on the dark web. They include results of blood tests for cancer and HIV.

Make no mistake. This is a terrorist attack on the UK, which has already resulted in widespread suffering and may cause deaths.

The hackers, who call themselves Qilin, operate out of Russia. They were first known to be active in 2022 and their activities have so far been thought to be criminal, using cyber attacks to extort large sums of cash from their victims. But Qilin claim they carried out this attack – in which a £40 million ransom was demanded – over Britain’s role in an unspecified war.

That may or may not be the motive, but it is far from implausible. Vladimir Putin seeks to create chaos in the West, to undermine support for Ukraine by demonstrating the high costs of that support. He has reportedly recruited criminal gangs to carry out sabotage against Western factories supplying arms to Ukraine, including cyber attacks. We have already seen indications of such action in Britain, the US, Germany and Poland.

Links between freelance hackers and Russian intelligence services have been growing since the 2022 invasion. It is possible Qilin is run and directed by one of the Kremlin’s agencies, and that it is provided with encouragement, information and technology. As a minimum, Russian law enforcement are turning a blind eye on these cyber gangs. For that, Putin is culpable.

It must be a priority to shut down Qilin, which has expanded into the largest Russian enterprise of its kind. That won’t be easy, although Continue reading →