Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 26 October 2024. © Richard Kemp

Israel’s attacks on Iran this morning were devastating. Dozens of combat planes flew 1,000 miles and are reported to have struck 20 military sites across the country. The primary targets were air defence systems and missile manufacturing facilities. This leaves Tehran more vulnerable to future strikes.

But there are two other consequences of Israel’s raids that are even more significant. First, the ayatollahs, already fearful of a direct, all-out war against a stronger power, will now be even more cowed and may be cautious about any retaliation. There was an indication of that in their statement that Israel had not crossed their red lines with this attack.

Second, they will have intensified fears for their top priority: the stability of their regime. There is significant dissent within the country and this latest dramatic sign of vulnerability will encourage those who seek to bring down the government. The dissidents will not be taken in by Tehran’s bluster that the Israeli strikes were blunted by air defences and caused only limited damage, a lie underlined by threats to Iranian citizens of lengthy prison sentences if they share footage of the strikes.

Nor will they believe the regime’s assertions that Israel was deterred by their warnings against the more significant attack that some had expected in response to repeated Iranian aggression, including the failed barrage of 200 missiles on October 1. Israel’s raid was not powerful enough to deal with the Iranian threat but that has nothing to do with any warnings from Tehran.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, knows only too well that a decisive strike is required. But his military actions have to be calibrated according to what will be tolerated in Washington. Fighting a war on seven battle fronts, plus a hugely important eighth front — political warfare fought in the UN, international courts, and capitals around the world — Israel is heavily dependent on continued US support.

To say the least, that is already patchy. Yes, the White House directly assisted Israel’s defences against Iranian missile attacks and has recently deployed THAAD air defence systems and the troops to man them. But when it comes to offensive operations, vital to defence, it has been positively obstructive, including withholding essential munitions supply.

The administration has also been unduly restrained in providing diplomatic cover for its ally’s necessary and legitimate military actions, not least by failing to respond aggressively to the obscene accusations of genocide in the International Court of Justice and the disgraceful demand by the International Criminal Court’s Chief Prosecutor for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders.

It is only too clear that the decisions made by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris since this war began have been directed by their overriding desire for appeasing two fronts. Domestically, they have calculated that the strong and growing anti-Zionist influence amongst the Democratic electorate can just about tolerate supporting Israel’s defence but won’t stretch to overt backing of offensive actions. It will always tempered by ‘Israel has a right to defend itself, but …’

Internationally, the administration’s Middle East policy is dominated by dangerous empowerment of Iran, including desperation to restore Barack Obama’s fundamentally flawed nuclear deal and fuelling its regional aggression by releasing billions of dollars of frozen assets. Both of these considerations account for the White House falling over itself to deny any involvement in this morning’s Israeli strikes.

That means Netanyahu has little choice other than to bide his time until after the presidential elections before he can deliver the necessary decisive blow against Iran. Despite the IDF’s remarkable success so far against Hamas and Hezbollah, the ‘ring of fire’ of terrorist proxies intended to suffocate the Jewish state can only be extinguished by a bullet in the brain that controls and funds the whole pernicious strategy. But Israel is acting not just in defence of itself, but of the entire region and the world.

The Islamic Republic’s watchwords are not only ‘death to Israel’ but also ‘death to America’. Its intention is to subjugate the Sunni world. Even if the current administration in Washington does not take that seriously, the Arab countries certainly do. That is why most of them, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are fully behind Israel in its efforts to eliminate the threat.

Thanks to Biden’s pusillanimity and misjudgement over the last four years, Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power. That must be prevented at all costs. Israel awaits a president who will have the courage to join, or at least back, the military action necessary to do so. The IDF has announced that its current strikes have been completed, but we should expect a much stronger resumption in the coming months.

Image: Wikimedia Commons