Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 27 March 2026. © Richard Kemp
Donald Trump is saddling up thousands more ground forces for the Middle East. Despite what some over-excited analysts and commentators might say, we are not about to see a re-run of the Iraq quagmire – at least, not by design.
The main force package seems to be a large special forces group and elements of the renowned US 82nd Airborne Division, the US Army’s paratroop formation. They will join US Marine amphibious assault forces already in the region or en route.
It might be that this build-up is intended to apply psychological pressure to the regime while Trump speaks of negotiations. Or it could be for real, with intent for ground forces to go in if the Iranians refuse to buckle to his demands.
Whatever the plan, these newly-deploying US troops are not there to launch a major ground offensive to invade and occupy the country. For that, a far larger and more powerful force would be needed, including heavy armour and artillery. We don’t know what Trump has in mind, and nor should we, but these forces are most likely to be used in short-term, precise operations to achieve specific military objectives.
These could include securing Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, or seizing critical energy-related facilities such as Kharg Island. It could also include taking key pieces of territory which would make an attempt to re-open the Strait of Hormuz easier.
A more significant prize, however, would be toppling the regime. The US and Israel have already achieved spectacular success in severely degrading the ayatollahs’ ability to continue their aggression against the US, Israel and their Arab neighbours. That has been their central focus since the Islamic Revolution.
But what can be demolished can also be repaired, even if doing so takes decades. And we can be sure that this regime, while it remains in power, will remain hell-bent on exactly that, with the assistance of Russia and China. They might wait until Trump leaves office to start in earnest. But if they remain, we can be sure that eventually they will have to be revisited.
Therefore, the main objective of US ground operations might be to bring about regime change, perhaps indirectly by something like a Kharg operation, or more directly by providing support to opposition forces in the country – a classic role for US special forces.
A big prize usually demands big risks, and the risks and complexities of sending in ground troops are far greater than air forces operating in a permissive environment. Iranian airspace has been permissive for US and Israeli planes since the IDF smashed up Iran’s air defences in June last year.
Whatever military incursion might be planned, the Iranians are not likely to be able to eject it. So, unless it is a Venezuela-style rapid in and out raid, they will do the opposite. They will try to suck the Americans in further and hope to force them to expand their operations in scale, duration and terrain, stretching both supply lines and political will. They will harass the US troops with missiles, drones and guerrilla attacks. The aim would not be to defeat the Americans but to inflict maximum casualties, preferably on both the invaders and the civil population.
The Iranians are well aware that Americans are divided on this war, Their strategic objective would be to force Trump to withdraw his forces under domestic and international pressure and then claim victory. They have not forgotten President Ronald Reagan pulling out US forces from Lebanon after their Hezbollah terrorist proxy group bombed a US Marine Corps barracks in 1983.
It is possible that a strategy like that could work again, especially if US forces failed to achieve their objectives and decided to reinforce for another push. And then another one. We should remember that the Iranians’ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was instrumental in lethal offensive action against US and allied forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran today is still capable of sustained retaliation.
I have no doubt that Trump’s military advisers and commanders will be alive to all of this. And another voice in the President’s ear is Benjamin Netanyahu, the most experienced and successful war leader alive today, who has been consulted on every step of Operation Epic Fury.
But only Trump can make the final call on military action of such significance. He might well consider that a chance to bring down this regime, or even just to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, is worth the potential price. There may also be bigger stakes. A new government in Tehran, and one that is aligned with the US, would be a major blow to China, whose global strategy depends heavily on influence over the ayatollahs and the Strait of Hormuz – especially if President Xi decides to make a move on Taiwan.
Image: White House/Flickr