Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 16 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

Many supporters of Israel have condemned the Gaza ceasefire deal as disastrous. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opponents have said it is an example of his weak leadership. Not so fast – we shouldn’t underestimate the man who ordered the beeper decapitation of Hezbollah, the elimination of its chief Hassan Nasrallah and even the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital.

The reality is none of us who are talking about it were in the room when decisions were made and we have no idea what the overall plan is, whatever has been publicly announced, discussed or rumoured. Netanyahu’s objective remains total victory over Hamas and Iran’s terrorist axis that seeks the annihilation of the Jewish state. Gaza is just one part of this conflict, albeit a vitally important one.

Like most wars, this one is not a linear process. A strategy is not necessarily undermined by deviation from what appears to be the obvious route towards achieving the end state. Indeed what we are seeing now may be seen as the application of British military theorist Basil Liddell Hart’s ‘indirect approach’. Having largely eliminated Hamas’s military capability over the last 15 months we have now reached the stage where the priority is to free the remaining 94 hostages.

That was always a major objective of the Gaza war, but it has so far proven impossible to release more than a handful by direct military force. The presence of the hostages has been a drag-anchor in the campaign and prevented Hamas’s total destruction. The terrorists know this only too well: that was exactly the reason they kidnapped them on 7 October.

So why is Hamas agreeing to release some of the hostages now? The original proposal on which this deal is based was made in March last year. Since then Hamas repeatedly refused to go along with it. But now its situation has deteriorated dramatically. Its betrayal by Hezbollah, which vowed to fight on until the IDF left Gaza then agreed to its own ceasefire, was a body-blow. The fall of Assad was another. But particularly devastating was the failure of Iran to come to the rescue.

Hamas is now isolated and to crown it all Donald Trump is entering the White House next week. They fear that will unshackle Israel from the constraints of Joe Biden who tried his best to prevent Netanyahu’s ‘total victory’. They also fear that Trump will do what Biden failed to do: force Qatar to expel their political leadership and also reduce the international pressure on Israel on which Hamas depends. There is every likelihood Trump will sanction the International Criminal Court and at the same time put the boot into the Israel haters at the UN.

All that is why Hamas has now accepted Israel’s red line: the IDF will maintain military forces in key strategic areas in Gaza and Israel retains the right to resume the war when the ceasefire ends. The terrorist organisation will meanwhile be planning to utilise its international backers to pressure Israel not to resume hostilities – including the useful idiots who parade on our streets and university campuses every week.

But while any hostages are retained in Gaza and while Hamas continues to represent a threat to its people, Israel can and should go back on the attack. For that they will have Trump’s backing. His nomination for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, told Fox News: ‘I’d like to make something very clear to the Israelis, if you need to go back in, we are with you. We are 100 per cent committed to destroying Hamas as a military organisation’.

Meanwhile the focus of the war is likely to shift to the head of the jihadist octopus, Iran. Netanyahu and Trump have almost certainly already agreed on that, and this deal should be seen as one element of their joint strategy. Eliminating the ayatollahs’ nuclear programme and further undermining their regional proxy network is vital. Isolating Iran and strengthening Israel’s security is not a military project alone. Trump is also likely to return to the Abraham Accords, bringing Saudi Arabia into the fold. The prospect of that alarmed Iran so much that it triggered Hamas’s murderous atrocities on 7 October.

Nevertheless, those who are horrified by this deal are right to highlight its grave risks. It seems to involve release of more than a thousand Palestinian terrorists in exchange for 33 Israeli hostages. And a cessation will give Hamas some opportunity to regroup and rebuild its capabilities. Above all it leaves Hamas in a position to maintain its stranglehold on Gaza’s population. That would certainly be disastrous and the eventual eradication or survival of Hamas will be the true measure of the success or otherwise of this ceasefire.