Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 12 July 2024. © Richard Kemp

Sir Keir Starmer has humiliated Britain, embarrassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and handed an undeserved victory to Russia at his first international summit as Prime Minister. It’s one thing to flip-flop on domestic policies but quite another, and far more dangerous, to do a screeching U-turn on a vital strategic subject with the eyes of the world on him.

But that’s precisely what he has achieved on the crucial issue of Storm Shadow missiles.

Only a couple of days ago, the international press hailed a new, more hawkish policy from the Government as Starmer suggested that Kyiv would be permitted to fire British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, lifting previous restrictions on their use. That decision was greeted enthusiastically by Zelensky, who added that he had discussed operational implementation with Starmer. Inevitably, the Kremlin condemned the move as a dangerous escalation.

A day later, however, Downing Street clarified that Ukraine will not be able to use Storm Shadow to attack into Russia after all. What’s going on? Pressure from the White House, cold feet in the face of Moscow’s outrage, or bungling by Starmer? Whichever it is, it is shambolic.

The first decision was the right one. For over two years, Russia has been hitting any corner of Ukraine it likes. It took months for Britain and the US to summon up the courage to supply Ukrainian forces with the long-range missiles they needed to hit back. But both countries, fearing Putin’s wrath, hogtied Kyiv by insisting they not be used against Russian targets outside Ukraine.

That has left Moscow free to build up supplies, deploy forces, and launch air attacks from within Russia with virtual impunity. We were reminded of the consequences of that this week when Putin rained down missiles on Ukrainian cities, including a children’s hospital. At least some of those strikes could potentially have been stopped on the ground before they were even launched.

The military effects when such freedom of action is allowed were demonstrated a few weeks ago. In the face of a Russian offensive towards Kharkiv, Biden was persuaded to allow some missiles to be used against forces inside Russia. Even that limited permission made a major contribution to the attack being blunted.

Under this new dispensation, the details of which weapons could be used, and the distance inside Russia that targets could be hit, were rightly not made public for reasons of operational security. Some understood that Storm Shadows may have been included. But now we know they were not – and Russia knows, too. It had been ambiguous, and ambiguity can be a powerful military weapon, keeping the enemy guessing and forcing a dissipation of defensive resources to guard against the unknown. Therefore, clarifying Britain’s position on Storm Shadow has handed Putin an unexpected advantage.

Starmer told Nato leaders in Washington: ‘Putin needs to hear a clear message ringing out from this summit – a message of unity and determination, that we will support Ukraine with whatever it takes.’ But that is not the message either Putin or Zelensky will have taken from his Storm Shadow U-turn.

Instead, Zelensky will have had his hopes dashed of Britain allowing unrestrained targeting that could have had a major impact on Russia’s war. And for Putin, there was further confirmation of how afraid Nato is of threats of escalation. This fear still grips Western leaders, despite so many of Putin’s red lines having been crossed without consequences.

Of course it is right that Britain must seek to avoid greater retaliation from the Kremlin.

But Ukraine’s war is our war, and wars are not won without taking the kind of risks inherent in enabling Ukraine to shove back harder against Putin. They are certainly not won by the kind of indecision we have seen from the Government this week.

Image: Wikimedia Commons