All posts by jmb82BBp

Hamas terrorists have stopped dressing as women. They’ll soon have to start again

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 20 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

Until yesterday the survivors of Hamas’s terror army were skulking inside what’s left of their tunnel network, hiding in civilian houses, mosques, schools and hospitals or embedding themselves into humanitarian areas on the coast.

They disguised themselves as civilians, sometimes dressed as women and journalists and never daring to openly carry weapons above ground. Today they are out on the streets of Gaza proudly wearing their green bandanas and combat uniforms while flaunting assault rifles and rocket launchers.

Even at the point of handover we have seen pictures of these newly courageous fighters closing in to intimidate and torment the first three women hostages to be released.

At the same time the ceasefire-emboldened terrorists are laughing in our faces, handing gift bags to the released women as well as ‘completion certificates’ to show they have spent well over a year in Hamas’s tunnels.

Since the cessation was agreed the terrorist leaders have been been renewing their vows to kill more Jews and launch repeated 7th October style massacres.

Meanwhile hordes of Gazan civilians have flooded into the streets, mostly healthy in appearance, well dressed and many visibly over-fed. A far cry from the picture Hamas, the UN, human rights groups and so much of the media have painted for the last 15 months: of disease and famine at the hands of the Israelis.

Despite claims of fuel and energy starvation in Gaza, cars now seem to be able to freely drive the people about and their ubiquitous smart phones are obviously well charged.

Like their Hamas leaders, these ‘innocent’ civilians have been screaming themselves hoarse with ‘Khaybar, Khaybar ya yahud’, an Arabic rallying cry calling for the slaughter of Jews.

Many Hamas leaders have been killed, including the most senior, and an estimated 20,000 plus fighters eliminated with their organized military structures dismantled.

Hamas have been trying to replace their dead terrorists with untrained and inexperienced volunteers from the population. Their capabilities will be boosted by the release of over 1,000 terrorist prisoners in the first stage of the deal alone, some of whom will be battle-hardened.

While they remain free from IDF attack, Hamas will be working overtime to regroup and rebuild their lost strength. Continue reading

Hamas must be eradicated. If it isn’t, this Gaza ceasefire is a failure

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 16 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

Many supporters of Israel have condemned the Gaza ceasefire deal as disastrous. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opponents have said it is an example of his weak leadership. Not so fast – we shouldn’t underestimate the man who ordered the beeper decapitation of Hezbollah, the elimination of its chief Hassan Nasrallah and even the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital.

The reality is none of us who are talking about it were in the room when decisions were made and we have no idea what the overall plan is, whatever has been publicly announced, discussed or rumoured. Netanyahu’s objective remains total victory over Hamas and Iran’s terrorist axis that seeks the annihilation of the Jewish state. Gaza is just one part of this conflict, albeit a vitally important one.

Like most wars, this one is not a linear process. A strategy is not necessarily undermined by deviation from what appears to be the obvious route towards achieving the end state. Indeed what we are seeing now may be seen as the application of British military theorist Basil Liddell Hart’s ‘indirect approach’. Having largely eliminated Hamas’s military capability over the last 15 months we have now reached the stage where the priority is to free the remaining 94 hostages.

That was always a major objective of the Gaza war, but it has so far proven impossible to release more than a handful by direct military force. The presence of the hostages has been a drag-anchor in the campaign and prevented Hamas’s total destruction. The terrorists know this only too well: that was exactly the reason they kidnapped them on 7 October.

So why is Hamas agreeing to release some of the hostages now? The original proposal on which this deal is based was made in March last year. Since then Hamas repeatedly refused to go along with it. But now its situation has deteriorated dramatically. Its betrayal by Hezbollah, which vowed to fight on until the IDF left Gaza then agreed to its own ceasefire, was a body-blow. The fall of Assad was another. But particularly devastating was the failure of Iran to come to the rescue.

Hamas is now isolated and to crown it all Donald Trump is entering the White House next week. They fear that will unshackle Israel from the constraints of Joe Biden who tried his best to prevent Netanyahu’s ‘total victory’. They also fear that Trump will do what Biden failed to do: force Qatar to expel their political leadership and also reduce the international pressure on Israel on which Hamas depends. There is every likelihood Trump will sanction the International Criminal Court and at the same time put the boot into the Israel haters at the UN.

All that is why Hamas has now accepted Israel’s red line: the IDF will maintain military forces in key strategic areas in Gaza and Israel retains the right to resume the war when the ceasefire ends. The Continue reading

If Hamas accepts a ceasefire, it won’t be because of Biden

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 15 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

Joe Biden’s hurried push for a ceasefire in Gaza before he leaves the White House is a fitting epitaph for his four years of foreign policy disasters. Under his vision, the proposed ceasefire would likely play into Hamas’s hands and disadvantage Israel. But does he really care if it does?

The President’s main interest seems to be his own legacy, and he must think a ceasefire in Gaza would be a success he could brag about. It’s like his disastrous retreat from Afghanistan timed precisely to show how he ended the war on the 20th anniversary of its beginning.

It didn’t quite work out that way, instead consigning the country back into the hands of a brutally repressive Taliban regime, which is again fast becoming a base for international jihadists to threaten the world. Biden’s desertion of America’s long-term ally also flashed a green light to Vladimir Putin, telling him he could invade Ukraine knowing that the administration would not stand up to him. So it has proven, and we now seem to be on the verge of a ceasefire on Russian terms thanks to Biden’s refusal to give Kyiv the tools it needed to repel the invaders.

Biden will of course take whatever credit he can from a ceasefire in Gaza. But if Hamas does go along with the latest deal, it will be down more to the spectre of Donald Trump who has promised ‘all hell will break loose’ if the hostages are not released before he enters the White House. Indeed Trump’s looming presence has been made flesh by the involvement in negotiations of his designated Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

What is more, a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, if it does occur, may not turn out to be exactly what it seems to the man in the Oval Office for the next few days. In fact, it is likely to be one part of a wider strategy for the Middle East already agreed between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump. That plan will have several far-reaching elements but a primary objective is undoubtedly to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, which represents an existential danger to Israel and threatens the Middle East and the world. It looks unlikely Continue reading

Britain certain to face new threats

Article published in The Daily Mirror, 3 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

The horrific terrorist attack in New Orleans is another chilling reminder of the jihadist threat that confronts us all.

Although police said bombs and guns may also have been intended as part of the attack, the indiscriminate murder of 15 people again shows us how much slaughter can be inflicted by everyday items such as cars, knives and off-the-shelf drones in the hands of the radicalised.

Their radical Islamist agenda demands the mass killing of infidels. But the indiscriminate nature of these attacks means that anyone can be a victim – indeed, the Islamic State and its fellow jihadists have killed many more Muslims around the world than non-Muslims. No one is safe from their bloodlust.

Many attacks have been by individuals acting only on broad internet directives from terror groups such as al-Qaeda, Hamas and the Islamic State and sometimes the mosque sermons of extremist preachers of hate.

‘Lone wolf’ terrorists are the most difficult to identify before they strike. But even networks can be impossible to track.

The most effective means of preventing these assaults is intelligence, both human and electronic, although that is far from foolproof.

Britains intelligence services have disrupted many more attacks than have succeeded.

A big part of the preventative jigsaw is enlisting help from the communities where the jihadists live. Many intelligence successes have come from such tip-offs.

We can be certain that New Orleans style attacks will again come to Britain.

It is essential that our intelligence services have all the resources they need to stop them and save lives.

Putin cannot survive another year like 2024

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 2 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

As 2025 begins, pessimism about Ukraine’s fate hangs in the air and the stench of appeasement on the wind. I find myself confused as to why, for it should be clear that the conflict has so far been an ignominious failure for President Vladimir Putin.

Unable to achieve the objective of subjugating his far smaller neighbour, he has instead inflicted enormous suffering on his own country and devastated its economy while undermining Russian prestige and strategic influence around the world.

Lest we forget that what was planned as a three-day ‘special operation’ has turned into a three-year nightmare. Russia has made only limited territorial gains and has been incapable of capturing even the whole of Donetsk Oblast in the east. Last year’s grand offensive to establish a buffer zone at Kharkiv to protect Russian territory only seized a few kilometres along the border. Missile attacks aimed at plunging Ukraine into near-constant cold and darkness have clearly failed.

Meanwhile Putin has lost control of parts of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces in the first invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War, failing to retake it despite enlisting North Korea as an ally in the conflict. Putin’s much-vaunted air defences have proven unable to halt Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots and ammunition warehouses inside Russia. Even the capital, Moscow, has been penetrated by locally-produced Ukrainian explosive drones. The Russian navy has been humiliated, losing control of the Black Sea and unable to strangle Ukraine’s grain exports. Upwards of 15 of its ships have been sunk by sea drones with many more damaged and the remainder of the fleet forced to retreat from the Crimean peninsula and the shores of Ukraine.

The human toll from Putin’s sclerotic campaign has also been immense. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces sustained 427,000 casualties in 2024 alone. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assesses that during the same period Russia seized 4,168 square kilometres; that means each square kilometre captured has cost more than 100 casualties.

The financial outlay on those casualties, with 6 per cent of the entire federal budget promised to support the wounded and compensate Continue reading

The mullahs could fall. If they do, Turkey rises

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

Is Assad’s fall from power going to lead to the further dismemberment of Syria? What are the wider consequences for the Middle East?

First, it’s important to recognise the true dynamics behind this geopolitical shockwave.

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames the US and Israel for overthrowing Bashar al-Assad. Indeed President Joe Biden has proudly taken credit for what happened in Syria. That’s great for his legacy perhaps, but far from the truth. In reality, Biden tried to obstruct Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decisive campaign against Iran and its proxies – especially Hezbollah – which was directly responsible for the fall of Assad.

Instead of the US, Israel’s ‘partner’ in ousting Assad was Turkey. Whether there was any coordination between the two we can only speculate, but it was president Racip Erdogan that unleashed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which Turkey sponsors with Qatar, to spearhead the drive on Damascus.

The future of Syria is going to be influenced by Israel and Turkey beyond all other forces. The two countries are far from friends, but both have national security interests in Syria. Until Netanyahu ordered the shattering of Syria’s military hardware last week, the country had for decades represented the greatest direct conventional threat to Israel. Courtesy of Assad, Syria was also the principal supply route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Unlike Netanyahu, Erdogan has broader designs on the Middle East, including, at least in his mind’s eye, the resurrection of the Ottoman caliphate. He has close ties with Qatar and Sunni jihadist groups in the region, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which themselves may now gravitate further towards Ankara as Iran descends: an increasing threat for Israel and many of the Arab countries as his regional power strengthens.

More immediately the 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey are politically problematic for Erdogan and he wants them sent home.

But his highest priority is ending the idea of a Kurdish autonomous region in northern Syria, which he sees as a direct threat to Turkey Continue reading

Turkey is seeking domination of Syria. Why does Israel get the blame?

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 12 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

The Turkish foreign ministry has strongly condemned Israeli military action in Syria, including the IDF’s advance into the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. ‘Israel is once again displaying its occupation mentality,’ according to Ankara. Never mind that Turkey has invaded, illegally occupied, and ethnically cleansed large areas of northern Syria since 2016.

Jerusalem has temporarily deployed its forces into largely uninhabited areas of critical terrain to prevent Syrian rebels from using them to threaten Israel. It has also been conducting precision attacks against weaponry that would otherwise fall into jihadist hands.

Turkey, meanwhile, has carried out airstrikes against Kurds in northern Syria, while its proxies have killed and kidnapped civilians. Looting and burning homes, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has seized the northern towns of Tal Rifaat and Manbij, previously held by the US-backed and largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces which played a key role in vanquishing the Islamic State.

Turkey’s condemnation of Israel’s legitimate defensive actions is perhaps understandable for a regime that wants to deflect from its expansionist activity in Syria. Outspoken criticism has also been heaped on Israel’s actions by Iran, again hardly surprising as the ayatollahs lick the wounds inflicted by their ignominious withdrawal from Syria and the devastation wreaked on their number one proxy, Hezbollah, both from Israeli military assault and the loss of Syrian territory vital for its survival.

However, right on cue, the UN, never willing to miss an opportunity to attack Israel, also demanded that the IDF pull back from the buffer zone and cease its air strikes against Syrian military assets. France, too, leapt onto the anti-Israel bandwagon. Search as I might, I have seen only tumbleweed at the UN and across much of the media on Turkey’s egregious assaults against northern Syria in the last few days, even though there have been reports of several hundred killed.

Israel is accused of breaching the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria following the Yom Kippur War. Israel’s position is that, Continue reading

Downfall of chemical murderer Assad is boost for jihadists everywhere to strike – including in Britain

Article published in The Sun, 9 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

Judged in isolation, the downfall of chemical murderer Assad is cause for satisfaction but the success of HTS in Syria is a major boost for fellow jihadists everywhere to strike — and that includes in Britain.

If Syria descends further into civil war and inter-factional fighting, as is likely, millions of refugees may also flood into Europe.

Among their number will be terrorists or those who later turn to terror.

HTS, which evolved from IS, al-Qaeda and Hamas, will be focused on gaining and holding on to control.

They claim not to have an interest in jihad beyond Syria but that should be disregarded.

Their priority will be a strike on Israel.

Their sights will also be on Jordan, where they will seek to replace the monarchy with Islamist rule.

Turkey and Qatar are both heavily involved in funding and directing HTS and Western countries should be leaning on them to restrain them.

We will also become increasingly dependent on Israeli intelligence to help protect us from terrorism.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Jihadi terrorists now rule Syria

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 9 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria is down to Hamas. The terrorist group’s invasion of Israel on October 7 last year triggered a chain of events that severely weakened Iran and consequently left its Syrian client exposed. Alongside Russia, Tehran had been propping up Assad since the rebellion against his rule that began in 2011. During its defensive war following the October 7 massacres, however, Israel inflicted huge damage on Iran’s two most important proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In addition Iran itself was revealed to be a paper tiger during the damaging counter-strikes that followed Tehran’s largely ineffective missile barrages against Israel.

Spotting the opportunity, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with an eye both on the destruction of Kurdish forces in northern Syria and his broader expansionary Islamist agenda, gave the green light to his terrorist proxies in Syria to move. Speaking to the media, he all but admitted that his intention was to bring down Assad. Most strikingly, in a lightning offensive Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) burst out from Idlib, leading a collection of other armed groups in seizing the major cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs and now Damascus.

Given the Assad regime’s monstrosities, many in the West have been enthusiastic about its fall, with some even hailing HTS as the good guys, led on by the apparently reasonable rhetoric of their leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

Not so fast. We can see many echoes of Afghanistan in what’s been happening in Syria. A similar power vacuum emerged there after Joe Biden pulled US forces out in 2021, leading to an astonishingly rapid Taliban advance. As in Afghanistan, demoralised Syrian government forces collapsed in the face of the jihadist march, with many melting away and some switching sides. In some places political accommodation has also been achieved by local leaders who preferred not to fight.

But remember also how in 2021 the Taliban tried to convince the world that they had changed from the group that inflicted such brutality on the country before being ejected 20 years earlier. Their spokesman said they would not seek revenge on those who had collaborated with Coalition forces and the US-backed government, and would even respect women’s rights and press freedom.

We know how that worked out. Well, HTS is trying the same trick now. Jolani has even gone so far as to declare that ‘diversity is a strength’. He has suggested that the people of Syria have nothing to fear and that his intent is to decentralise governance in the country, with the various ethnic and religious groups being freed to rule their own areas.

No doubt this was an effort to diminish resistance as HTS advanced and also to gain some kind of acceptance among gullible Westerners. But we should not forget that HTS is a jihadist group with origins in Al Qaeda, including the remnants of the group led by Abu Musab al Zarqawi, a Palestinian Jordanian known as the ‘sheikh of the slaughterers’. Wherever they have had authority, they have inflicted abuse. Continue reading

This ceasefire has exposed Iran’s impotence

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 27 November 2024. © Richard Kemp

Whatever happened to Hezbollah’s solidarity with its jihadist brothers in Gaza? That was the pretext for launching its war of aggression against Israel the day after Hamas’s October 7 orgy of murder, rape, kidnapping and torture. Yet despite the Hezbollah leadership’s cast iron guarantees that ‘the Lebanon front will not stop before stopping the aggression on Gaza’, it seems they couldn’t even be bothered to mention the Gaza Strip in their desperation for a ceasefire. Nothing could be more telling of the once hubris-filled Hezbollah’s sorry state after a year of mauling by Israel.

Their leaders have been taken out by the dozen, huge numbers of fighters cut down, rockets and launchers blown to smithereens and all of the village strongholds in southern Lebanon razed to the ground. Many terrorists have fled for their lives into neighbouring Syria in the face of the IDF bulldozer. This has become the fate of the fanatical and murderous gangsters that until recently were thought of as the most powerful paramilitary force the world had ever seen.

The blow that this ceasefire represents to the Iranian regime is every bit as great. Hezbollah, painstakingly built up at enormous expense over 40 years, was their flagship, the most important part of the ‘ring of fire’ put in place to burn Israel to death. The vessel may not yet have been sunk but it is certainly filling up with water. Manning the pumps rather than continuing to fire broadsides was seen by the ayatollahs as the best way of salvaging something from the wreckage.

As the IDF continued to hammer Hezbollah, its remaining leadership also feared uprising by rival factions in Lebanon, where long standing animosities have been held at bay by its hitherto unchallenged stranglehold on the country. It’s not clear whether that might yet materialise but you can imagine the fear such a prospect would seize in the Supreme Leader and his henchmen who themselves are having to hold off growing dissent at home.

Adding to the woes of Hezbollah and its Iranian masters is the imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. He is going to usher in a new era in Middle East relations with every probability of less restraint towards Iran and its terror proxies. Recognising that peace and stability is achieved not by fear but by strength, Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for National Security Adviser, says: ‘We will not tolerate the status quo of Iran’s support for terrorism.’ Continue reading