Article published in The Daily Express, 19 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

I have no doubt that the horrific blast at Al-Ahli Hospital was the work of Iran-sponsored Islamic Jihad, the second most dangerous terrorist group in the Gaza Strip. The IDF has made clear that they fired no munitions in the area at or close to the time of the attack. They have also published evidence from radar imagery confirming the missile that struck the hospital was launched by Islamic Jihad from a cemetery. Furthermore Israeli intelligence has released voice intercepts of jihadist radio traffic at the time saying the attack came from them.

Should we believe the Israelis? In my extensive experience of conflict in Israel, the IDF invariably admits when they make errors that result in civilian deaths. They waited around two hours until they initially indicated it was not one of their missiles and only several hours later confirmed for sure who was responsible. This is because IDF protocol requires the greatest degree of certainty before they will confirm or deny any such action as this.

Of course that vacuum was immediately filled by Hamas accusations against Israel. These were gleefully taken up by the usual chorus of media, politicians and so-called military experts only too happy to condemn the IDF on the basis of zero evidence.

It was no surprise to me that a Gaza terrorist rocket should fall short. Something like 30% of all missiles launched by Islamic Jihad at Israel land inside Gaza and often hit their own people. In the last two major rounds of this conflict terrorist missiles killed more of their own people than Israelis.

As usual, much of the media has faithfully parroted Gaza Health Ministry casualty figures for this attack, failing to reflect that the ministry is controlled by Hamas. Looking at footage of this incident it seems likely the numbers would have been far lower than the hundreds claimed. That also conforms to standard Hamas practice. Let us hope it was an exaggeration and, although a tragic incident whatever the figures we should not forget that this missile was intended to kill innocent Israeli civilians.

Article by Rafael Bardají published by Voz Media,  23 October 2023.

The barbarity and horror unleashed by Hamas on October 7 against Israeli citizens, foreign workers, visitors of many nationalities and soldiers of the Israeli Defense Forces, not to mention the continuous bombardment from the Gaza Strip with rockets fired indiscriminately at Israeli soil, no matter where they land, is not only a Palestinian attack against Israel. In fact, it would be a grave mistake to stick to this interpretation. It is true that Hamas terror had a direct impact around Gaza, in southern Israel, and that under the shock of that moment we have been focused on what is happening in the area. But the Hamas attack goes far beyond Gaza itself and Israel.

And we are not referring to the growing possibility that Hizballah will open a northern front as soon as Israeli troops penetrate Gaza – after all, both groups, though very different, obey their masters in Tehran. Staying at the regional level would also be a mistake. It must be stated clearly. By attacking Israel, Hamas is attacking the Western world. The demonstrations that have been taking place in most European capitals and major American cities, the widespread outbursts of anti-Semitism, the calls for holy war from our streets and squares, and, unfortunately, the multiple attacks, some of them regrettably deadly, perpetrated by Islamists shouting the slogan ‘Allah is the greatest’, are not only a clear proof of the extension and penetration of Islamism within our democratic and liberal societies, but also the mobilization capacity of Islamism disguised as a pro-Palestinian national cause.

October 7 2023 will go down in history as one of the worst days experienced by the Jewish people and, possibly, as the worst in Israel since its establishment. On Yom Kippur, just 50 years ago, there were armies that wanted to annihilate the tiny Jewish State; now, it has been terrorist militiamen who have assaulted, tortured, mutilated, burned and kidnapped essentially civilians, whom they took as the preferred target for their orgy of terror.

We already know that the Hamas attack was possible by its audacity and, above all, by three tactical, operational and strategic failures on the part of Israel. It is true that there were not enough troops on guard; it is true that, without communications or a clear idea of ​​what was going on, it reacted slowly. But perhaps the most serious thing is not all of the above, but the belief accumulated in Israel over years that Hamas was content to initiate a cycle of limited violence every two years, absorb the retaliation and return to its trenches until the next attack. Israel, which knew itself to be always stronger, believed it could control Hamas because its leaders were rational. Without rational actors there can be no deterrence.

Well, from a strategic point of view, what Hamas has achieved is to dynamite in one day the Israeli consensus. Hamas is no longer just another Palestinian actor, in competition with the Palestinian Authority, but, in its nature, a jihadist group comparable to the Islamic State, ISIS, Daesh or whatever you want to call it. Therefore, a group with which no negotiations can be sustained, with which no dialogue can be held, and from which any accommodation can be expected. From this new vision, the only future that can be planned for Hamas is that of its disappearance.

Article published in The Daily Express, 16 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

After the largest mobilisation in Israel’s history, IDF troops are now ready on the Gaza border, waiting for the order to go in. When that will be depends on the progress of the air war and perhaps also on the weather. Rain is forecast to continue for a couple more days and given the importance of precision air support for ground troops, commanders might wait for optimum visibility.

An even greater factor is what happens across the border in Lebanon. The last few days have seen the most intensive attacks by Hizballah since the Second Lebanon War in 2006. I was in the border area today when terrorists fired anti-tank missiles, rockets and small arms into Israel, answered by IDF airstrikes. One Israeli was killed and three wounded by anti-tank fire at the village of Shtula. The situation in the north is tense — many civilians have left, fearing all-out missile fire and even the possibility that Hizballah terrorists might cross the border and attack their communities.

Some Middle East experts say Hizballah is deterred from a full-blown war with Israel by fear of their own destruction. But many experts said the same of Hamas even days before the terrorist massacre a week ago. Iran, which has been threatening revenge against Israel if attacks on Gaza don’t cease, will be ready to push Hizballah into action when it judges the time is right.

If that happens Israel will be facing a two-front war. The IDF has prepared for that, but nevertheless it would be hugely challenging. If the IDF assess an onslaught from Lebanon is likely, it might choose a major pre-emptive strike to seize the initiative, possibly even delaying the ground offensive into Gaza.

Across the Golan Heights in Syria, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces are reported to have moved closer to the border and rockets were fired at Israel on Saturday. The IDF responded with strikes against Aleppo airport. If major Israeli action becomes necessary there could even be a risk of direct confrontation with Russian forces in the country.

If sustained attacks are launched from either Lebanon or Syria, Israel might well decide to take military action against the hand that controls the terrorists in both countries and so it is not inconceivable we could see strikes launched against Iran. If that happens it is unlikely to lead to an even wider regional conflagration, as most Arab countries are certainly no friends of Iran and fear its growing regional dominance. Behind closed doors their governments, deeply concerned about the rise of Islamist radicalism at home, would also like to see the quick eradication of Hamas, also proxies of Iran.

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 10 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

Israel must use whatever force it can bear to strangle the terrorist groups who massacred, brutalised and kidnapped its citizens and are willing to do the same again. That may sound like callous warmongering, but it is not. When a country faces a vicious enemy that is intent on the murder of its people, a responsible government has no choice other than to stop it in any way it can. And please don’t say that, in Israel’s case, it can only be resolved with a political solution – because there won’t be one in the foreseeable future.

Hamas doesn’t want peace and prosperity for its people. It doesn’t want a two-state solution. What it does want is the annihilation of the Jewish state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea – in other words, all of it. Read its founding document, where this is spelt out in black and white; the events of the last few days show conclusively that the Hamas charter isn’t just hyperbole.

Like Islamic State, which the group resembles in both method and ideology, Hamas is not susceptible to any form of political bargaining, compromise or negotiation. That much has been proved time and again in previous rounds of violence, when it was handed political concessions only to unleash terror again once it had rebuilt its military capabilities.

Thus Hamas can only be stopped by being defeated. That means crushing its will to resist, something which is only attainable by eliminating fighters in large numbers and destroying combat capability through devastating military force. If Israel fails to do that, it can only result in interminable conflict in which many more people on both sides will die.

The consequences of such an outcome go well beyond this immediate conflict. We saw how the West’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 emboldened Vladimir Putin to launch an invasion in Ukraine six months later. Now we risk emboldening terrible actors in the Middle East, who seek not just to strike but permanently destroy our allies.

The US and the rest of Nato wield the greatest military capability in the world by a huge margin, and Israel has one of the most powerful armed forces in the Middle East. But power is made up not just of tanks, guns, combat planes and warships. It is underpinned by the political will to use them.

Israel is surrounded by a ring of fire, just waiting to be ignited. In the north, in Lebanon, there is Hizbollah, also funded by Iran, with huge stockpiles of missiles primed and ready to be fired into the civilian population the length and breadth of Israel. In the east there is Syria, with Iran working hard to replicate a similar base of attack to the one it has so painstakingly developed in Lebanon. The West Bank, Continue reading →