Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 17 December 2022. © Richard Kemp
Rumours of Putin’s imminent escape to Venezuela are greatly exaggerated, as Mark Twain might have said. This flight of fancy has been triggered by the cancellation of an annual press conference and other high profile fixtures, including the Russian dictator’s traditional ice hockey match in Red Square, although a simpler explanation for that might be the optics of the president capering around on the ice while his men are freezing at the front.
That being said, any ruthless despot worth his salt has a Plan B up his sleeve in case the axe gets too close to his neck. Alas, we’re not there yet. It’s unlikely Putin’s generals are telling him that the game is up in Ukraine because, true or not, that’s definitely something he does not want to hear. Instead, despite everything, as they did at the beginning of the year, the military chiefs will be assuring him that victory can be his.
To save his own skin and salvage something of his tattered reputation, Putin has no other option but to vanquish Ukraine. With 100,000 soldiers killed or wounded, Russia isolated on the world stage and its economy savaged, he cannot possibly consider reverting to the pre-February status quo or anything like it no matter how many off-ramp arrows the French president flashes in front of him.
Hence the Ukrainian general staff say Putin is preparing to launch a major offensive between January and March, with Kyiv as the target. There has been increased Russian military activity in Belarus over recent weeks, but it is not clear whether that amounts to a demonstration of force to tie up large numbers of Ukrainian troops, or a real threat to Kyiv and to supply lines from Poland.
Those who reckon Putin would not contemplate another ground assault against Ukraine’s capital after failing so ignominiously earlier in the year are not looking through the eyes of a dictator who has boxed himself into a corner, whose neck is on the line and who is surrounded by yes men. Continue reading