Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 18 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

It should come as no surprise to anyone that Putin is seeking to exploit the war between Israel and Hamas. This week alone he has been on the telephone to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and the leaders of Egypt, Syria and Iran, claiming he wants to negotiate a ceasefire. The man responsible for spilling vast quantities of blood around the world, and especially in Ukraine, now says: ‘What matters now is to stop the bloodshed.’

If the Russian president thinks his intervention will make any difference, however, he is deluding himself. The idea that Moscow could any longer hold significant sway in the Middle East is farcical. Whatever reputation it had as a world power has been shattered in Ukraine. We’ve seen yet more reasons why this week.

On Tuesday, Kyiv’s surprise ATACMS long-range missile strike against Russian airfields in occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk sent Russian forces reeling – some are calling it the most significant strike by the Ukrainians in months. The Russians reportedly suffered significant losses and will be forced to move aircraft further away from the front line – operationally damaging as well as publicly humiliating. In the area of Kupyansk, meanwhile, Ukrainian forces appear to have blunted a significant Russian offensive – a miniature blitzkrieg – that had been building for weeks.

Although Putin’s forces have adapted and expanded from their lowest point last autumn, it bears repeating that his army remains in dire straits 18 months on from the three-week campaign planned for February last year. Russia is still heavily constrained, both economically and militarily, and has limited freedom of action beyond its all-consuming war.

As such, Middle Eastern countries, once impressed by Russian prowess – or at least the illusion of it – have seen Moscow’s failure to subjugate a markedly less powerful state and its accompanying debasement on the battlefield as a sign that it is a declining power. In Syria, for example, where Putin once held great sway following his support of the monstrous dictator Bashar al-Assad, Russia is losing traction, not least because it has had to redeploy some of its forces to Ukraine.

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Article published in The Daily Mirror, 14 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

I’m writing this from an Israeli defensive position on the northern border with Lebanon. The world’s eyes are on Gaza but Israel must have guns everywhere.

Just before I arrived a group of Hezbollah terrorists attempted to infiltrate into Israel and were wiped out from the air. Then they attacked with rockets. The Iranian-backed terrorist group have 150,000 missiles pointing at Israel.

They might well join this fight in earnest, perhaps as the Israel Defence Force (IDF) gets entrenched into the battle in Gaza. The US Navy has entered the eastern Mediterranean to deter exactly that. Earlier on Gaza’s border I met with troops preparing to enter the Strip. They were apprehensive yet determined to do what is needed to protect family, friends and countrymen from Hamas rockets.

They are also ready to put their lives on the line to make sure these bloodthirsty terrorists can never again commit the atrocities we saw last weekend. The only way to do that is by destroying every shred of Hamas’s capability.

Much of the destruction of Hamas can be done from the air but a ground offensive may be needed to finish the job. On Friday the IDF launched lightning raids into Gaza and then withdrew.

If they need to enter Gaza in force the men I spoke to will be in for a tough fight over land sewn with booby traps, snipers and ambush teams. But they are trained and there is no doubt they will prevail.

Conforming with the laws of war, IDF air commanders have been careful to minimise civilian casualties. But that can’t be avoided altogether when fighting an enemy that hides behind its own civilian population. The more blunt weapon of an infantry assault could lead to an even greater civilian casualty rate.

Hamas’s main stronghold is around Gaza City, and before intensifying attacks there the IDF have instructed civilians to head south. Absurdly, some commentators suggested this is against international law when it is the precise opposite.

Lebanon is likely to be dragged into this war if Hezbollah intensify their attacks. Iran might also push its forces and proxies in Syria to join the assault.

When Israel has removed Hamas that will not be the end. Hamas is the government of Gaza and Israel will have no choice than to take over control as the population emerges from war.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Article published by Ynetnews.com,  13 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

Sderot Mayor Alon Davidi showed me the rubble of his city’s police station, where just a few days ago 25 police officers were brutally murdered. He reckoned around 200 of his citizens had been butchered by Hamas terrorists as they rampaged through the streets last weekend, gunning down men, women, children and babies. The grizzly remnants of this 21st-century pogrom were all over Sderot, including crashed and bullet-riddled cars with smashed windows and blood smears inside and out.

Next to the police station a couple of bloated terrorist corpses lay with cloths thrown over their faces. Someone had clearly offered respect to the dead, but I found it hard to feel anything but contempt even for the cadavers of savages who had wrought such hell on the innocent people of a city I have visited many times in the past. Today, Sderot is not much more than a ghost town: most of its surviving citizens have sought safe haven elsewhere.

The mayor asked me to relay a message to the British people, and by extension, everyone in the civilized world: ‘Let the IDF get on with it; don’t attempt to pressure us into stopping before the terrorists are attacked so hard they can’t raise a finger against us ever again.’

After another rocket slammed into a Sderot house, wounding a resident and sending a pillar of black smoke into the sky, I moved closer to the Gaza border and spent time in a field base, chatting to young infantrymen of the Givati Brigade, some of whom were at pains to point out that theirs is the best unit in the whole of the IDF.

I’ve spent most of my life with soldiers like that, fiercely proud of their own regiment, joshing each other and joking around, even on the eve of what they expect to be a violent assault into enemy territory. Knowing the perils they face when they are sent into a world of lethal booby traps, hidden bombs, landmines, snipers, ambushes, Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Express, 13 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

Speaking from the border yesterday IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi made clear that armed terrorist gangs would be totally removed from the Gaza Strip. That is the objective of Israel’s Operation Iron Swords, launched in response to the mass slaughter, rape and abduction of Israeli civilians and soldiers last weekend by Hamas terrorists.

Over the last few days the crash of explosions has been almost incessant and I have watched pillars of smoke rising up from Gaza as Israel launched strike after strike against terrorist targets, using combat planes, guided missiles and artillery. These attacks are not going to end any time soon as Israel progressively works its way through pre-prepared target lists that include terrorist leaders, command posts, communications infrastructure, arms dumps and rocket launchers.

Israel has mobilised more than 300,000 soldiers for this fight and there is every likelihood that in the coming days Halevi will send troops and tanks in on the ground as well to complete the process of eliminating Hamas as a viable terrorist entity. I have spoken to IDF soldiers deployed around Gaza, preparing and training for exactly that.

They will face immense dangers as they advance across ground that Hamas has prepared with remote controlled explosives, ambushes and anti-armour teams. There is an underground city beneath Gaza to enable Hamas fighters to take IDF soldiers by surprise and outflank attacking formations. The IDF has trained for exactly this form of combat and will prevail on the ground, although they could well take heavy casualties. Towns and cities are the most dangerous places and it is likely that where possible IDF troops will remain in open areas from where they can control the main above-ground routes through the Strip. Continue reading →

Article published in The Sunday Telegraph, 7 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

Who does Mr Varadkar think he’s kidding? When he says Britain is ‘disengaging from the world, he’s talking about the Britain that has led the world in responding to the worst military crisis to hit Europe since the Second World War. Varadkar’s own country, and many other European nations, were paralysed by fear as the Russian invasion unfolded, hoping it would all just go away. Meanwhile Britain was ahead of the pack in sending arms to Kyiv and immediately played an active role in encouraging others to do the same.

Boris Johnson’s leadership helped stiffen US resolve, reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher’s exhortation to President George HW Bush when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990: ‘This is no time to go wobbly.’

Since then Britain has been providing weapons, military training, financial assistance, vital intelligence and taking in large numbers of refugees fleeing Putin’s aggression. We have enthusiastically sent in long range missiles and tanks, shaming others to follow suit. Hardly the actions of a nation that is retiring from the world stage.

So what has Varadkar been doing to help the war effort? In the words of President Zelensky, Ireland ‘almost stands with us’. Like the UK, Ireland has commendably taken in Ukrainian refugees, but beyond that it has only provided a handful of trainers as part of an EU mission and sent body armour, field rations and some de-mining equipment. Admittedly Ireland is a small country, but for example, it has stockpiles of modern anti-armour weaponry gathering dust, including Javelin missiles which Britain and America supplied to devastating effect against Putin’s tanks.

Ireland’s excuse for this failure to help a European neighbour in distress is supposedly that it is militarily but not politically neutral. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 2 October 2023. © Richard Kemp

The US suspension of additional funding for Ukraine is a totemic moment in this conflict. Even if agreement is reached by Congress to extend financial assistance beyond mid-November, the political manoeuvring that saw Biden’s bid for a $24 million aid package slashed by three-quarters and then ditched altogether expose the immense difficulties the White House will have pushing future tranches through Congress.

That some Republicans were willing to shut down the US government over support for Ukraine is a very bad sign: even if they don’t win the presidency they will likely take control of the Senate next year. Their machinations were being driven by domestic political objectives in the midst of an election campaign rather than purposeful abandonment of the Ukrainian cause. But they must still be seen against the backdrop of the distinct lack of public support for continued backing of Ukraine’s war, with an opinion poll in August showing only 45 per cent of Americans ready to provide additional funding.

The mood against continuing support is significantly stronger among Republican voters who have traditionally been more bullish on foreign policy and use of force, and this shift in perspective is largely down to Donald Trump’s stance on the war. But the blame for imperilling Ukraine as Congress has falls squarely on Biden’s own shoulders. Had he not dragged his heels at every turn, refusing since the beginning to supply essential combat equipment in time or in sufficient numbers, the impact of Congressional recalcitrance would have been blunted.

His fear of antagonising Putin means that the critical long-range missiles have still not arrived, and there is no likelihood of seeing F16s in the skies anytime soon. These and other war-winning assets could easily have been sent in before popular support began to fall away and ahead of electoral politics taking centre stage. Both of these potential hazards were predictable, but rather than acting Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 24 September 2023. © Richard Kemp

After more than a year of procrastination, President Joe Biden has reportedly told President Volodymyr Zelensky that ATACMS ballistic missiles will be sent to Ukraine. I experienced ATACMS fire missions against high value Iraqi targets in 1991 during Operation Desert Storm. They are powerful and precise, capable of wreaking destruction on enemy forces up to 190 miles away.

These missiles are badly needed by Ukraine, outnumbered against Russian defences with air superiority and a 10:1 advantage in artillery. But formidable as they are, they will not be a game-changer. According to reports from Washington only ‘a small number’ are to be supplied and it may be many more months before they actually come into action.

Unnecessary delays in supplying vital combat capabilities, including tanks and F16s, cost lives and handicap Kyiv’s efforts to drive the Russians out. Behind this is a fear of provoking Putin and triggering escalation. That fear is unfounded: Moscow is already throwing everything it’s got into this war and the last thing it can afford is a direct fight with Nato. Nor would Putin dare hit the nuclear button, despite his earlier bluster, now muted. Every one of his red lines crossed so far by Ukraine or the West has been met with the same bluster. True to sabre-rattling form, the day after the ATACMS decision was made public, Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, again trotted out the familiar line that the West is ‘directly at war’ with Russia.

Another consequence of Washington’s unfounded fear of escalation is that when ATACMS eventually arrive, they will come with a red flag banning their use against targets on Russian sovereign territory. That irrational restriction applies to all Western-supplied weapons, so while Russia is free to strike any target it can get to in Ukraine, Kyiv has one hand tied behind its back. Untying that hand could prove pivotal in this war, enabling Ukraine to strike Russian military headquarters, air bases, munitions factories, and supply lines. Continue reading →