Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 15 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

Joe Biden’s hurried push for a ceasefire in Gaza before he leaves the White House is a fitting epitaph for his four years of foreign policy disasters. Under his vision, the proposed ceasefire would likely play into Hamas’s hands and disadvantage Israel. But does he really care if it does?

The President’s main interest seems to be his own legacy, and he must think a ceasefire in Gaza would be a success he could brag about. It’s like his disastrous retreat from Afghanistan timed precisely to show how he ended the war on the 20th anniversary of its beginning.

It didn’t quite work out that way, instead consigning the country back into the hands of a brutally repressive Taliban regime, which is again fast becoming a base for international jihadists to threaten the world. Biden’s desertion of America’s long-term ally also flashed a green light to Vladimir Putin, telling him he could invade Ukraine knowing that the administration would not stand up to him. So it has proven, and we now seem to be on the verge of a ceasefire on Russian terms thanks to Biden’s refusal to give Kyiv the tools it needed to repel the invaders.

Biden will of course take whatever credit he can from a ceasefire in Gaza. But if Hamas does go along with the latest deal, it will be down more to the spectre of Donald Trump who has promised ‘all hell will break loose’ if the hostages are not released before he enters the White House. Indeed Trump’s looming presence has been made flesh by the involvement in negotiations of his designated Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

What is more, a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, if it does occur, may not turn out to be exactly what it seems to the man in the Oval Office for the next few days. In fact, it is likely to be one part of a wider strategy for the Middle East already agreed between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump. That plan will have several far-reaching elements but a primary objective is undoubtedly to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, which represents an existential danger to Israel and threatens the Middle East and the world. It looks unlikely that Trump would send in US forces for this mission, but that isn’t strictly necessary. What is needed is for the US to give Israel the military assistance and diplomatic cover it requires, which Biden refused to do.

There has never before been a better time to eliminate this threat. And doing so could also lead to the demise of the ayatollahs’ regime with its regional and world-wide violent aggression. Israel has largely neutralised both Iran and Syria’s air defences, clearing the way for a major strike against Tehran’s nuclear installations. Another significant obstacle to such an operation was Hezbollah, whose vast armoury of missiles in Lebanon existed to deter and if necessary launch a counter-strike against the Israeli population in the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear programme. Hezbollah’s offensive capability has now also been largely neutralised by Israel’s masterful decapitation of its leadership and devastating assaults against missiles and launch sites.

This is where the potential Gaza ceasefire comes into play. Israel has been working to free the remaining hostages for the last 15 months as a principal war aim. But despite its best efforts, ninety-four of them remain captive, some of whom are still alive. There is every probability that Hamas might murder the hostages in retaliation for a major attack on its sponsors in Tehran. It would therefore be desirable to get as many as possible out before that. There is another consideration also. Although Israel could launch an attack on Iran while continuing to fight in Gaza, there may be advantages in the proposed three-month cessation that could release important military assets.

It is therefore paradoxical that Biden’s pressure for a ceasefire might end up working against his rigid determination to prevent Israel attacking the Iranian nuclear programme. Such a move would have run counter to his four year long appeasement of the ayatollahs aimed at resurrecting Obama’s dangerously flawed nuclear deal which Trump did away with. Thankfully in this case, that has been yet another Biden foreign policy failure.

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