Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 9 July 2025. © Richard Kemp

Last week David Lammy proclaimed himself the first UK Minister to visit Syria since Assad’s retreat to Moscow. Renewing British relations with Damascus, Lammy proudly posed for a photograph with a smiling president Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa.

Lammy argues that a stable Syria is in the UK’s interests: it reduces the risk of illegal immigration, ensures the destruction of chemical weapons and tackles the threat of terrorism. Yet predictably he has not acknowledged that this possible move towards stability is solely down to a country he has vilified, scorned and accused of war crimes.

Assad hung on to his reins amidst years of violent uprising due to Iranian support backed up by Russia. Al-Sharaa was only able to seize power because Israel had smashed up Hezbollah, which otherwise would have stopped him in his tracks. Nor could the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ride to Assad’s rescue because the IDF would not have permitted it to do so.

Israel went further, dismantling Syria’s military hardware, Iranian bases and chemical weapons factories in relentless pre-emptive strikes following Assad’s downfall. Again, Lammy should be thankful for that, because however the situation develops in the future, neither al-Sharaa nor any other Syrian warlord will have the means to deliver extreme violence without rebuilding these capabilities.

Indeed, that calculation was probably decisive in the Foreign Office’s decision to send Lammy to deliver overtures to al-Sharaa, making the whole enterprise far less risky.

But immense risks nevertheless remain. As well as the Syria-focused Al-Nusra Front and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Al-Sharaa’s jihadist credentials include Al Qaeda and the Islamic State by proxy, both of whom have of course targeted and attacked UK interests at home and abroad. The same is true of many of his long-standing henchmen now in the interim government. As well as fighting to establish an Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Mirror, 7 July 2025. © Richard Kemp

Twenty years ago today these four men killed themselves and 52 others when they detonated their bombs on three trains and a bus in London in the first Islamist suicide attack on UK soil.

A further 770 people were injured in the 7/7 bombings, which signalled the start of a new era of terrorism in Britain. There is now an ever-present terror threat, and with ever-changing weapons would-be attackers are adapting.

But, in the shadows, MI5 and counter-terror police are surveilling terror cells and lone wolves, building up evidence and striking to prevent attacks.

They have seen terrorism up close and understand what the public do not see – that evil is out there and another attacker could strike at any time.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 4 July 2025. © Richard Kemp

Visiting Israel during the recent Iranian attacks, several times I saw Israeli interceptors hurtling single-mindedly through the night sky over Tel Aviv towards an unseen Iranian ballistic missile. I’d been in active warzones before, but even so, in my experience it is a uniquely reassuring sight.

The IDF Air Defence Command shot down around 86 per cent of some 500 missiles Iran fired during the twelve day war, and stopped 99 per cent of over 1,000 drones. If drones are the future of warfare, they were a busted flush in this conflict, when faced with the most sophisticated air defence system in the world. That system is made up of a wide range of expensive and precisely directed and coordinated interceptors including Arrow, David’s Sling, Barak and Iron Dome, supplemented by US Thaad launchers and SM interceptors fired by US warships near Israel.

Ever since Saddam Hussein fired 42 Scud missiles at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War, Jerusalem has been working assiduously to defend its people against all forms of air attack. Thirty four years of research and development and tactical and technical innovation accompanied by heavy financial investment has more than paid off in the face of missile and drone attacks from Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Israel’s strategy is not just to meet threats from the air but to overmatch them, and the IDF continues to work flat out to maintain its qualitative edge as its enemies learn from their own failures.

Now I’m back home in Britain, and to be honest I don’t feel nearly as safe as I did in Israel under active attack. The UK has made almost no effort in this sphere and today we are undefended against all but the most limited forms of attack. What defences we do have are too few to cover much of our territory.

Our only protection against ballistic missiles is the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers, armed with Sea Viper anti-air missiles – just two of these ships are typically available for duty. Even their capabilities are limited compared to the Israeli equivalent: HMS Diamond did shoot down an Iranian ballistic missile fired by the Houthis last year, but Sea Viper is not meant to be capable of ballistic intercept and the enemy weapon was probably quite basic: of the type often dubbed ‘quasi ballistic’. If one of our aircraft carriers sails across the world, as is the case today, she takes a destroyer with her and we are down to one to protect the UK.

Aside from our one available destroyer, a few RAF quick response fighters can be launched to intercept enemy planes, cruise missiles and drones. The Army has a few batteries of short-range air defence missiles. We do not have any up and running airborne radar systems, meaning that we have very limited ability to detect low-flying incoming threats. Our combined defences don’t come anywhere close to meeting the threat we face today.

The UK homeland can easily be struck by a range of Russian missiles – ballistic, cruise, hypersonics and drones – fired from Russia itself or from its aircraft, ships or submarines. There is a man in the Kremlin who has proved his willingness to use the weapons against military targets as well as population centres, and has already ordered lethal attacks of a different type against civilians in our country.

I wonder if Keir Starmer realised that, and our inability to effectively defend against such strikes, when he led with his chin on heading a “coalition of the willing” against Russia. Perhaps he has realised now and maybe that explains why he’s gone so quiet. But it only gets worse. Within 15 years ballistic missiles fired from anywhere in the world will likely be able to hit targets anywhere else in the world: such systems have already been tested. Unless our capabilities improve dramatically, we will be comprehensively deterred from any unilateral action, no matter how vital it may be.

The Israelis also understand something else we seem to have forgotten: attack is the best form of defence. During the twelve day war they didn’t just rely on their interceptors but, using combat planes, ships and drones, they relentlessly struck at Iran’s launchers, knocking out at least half of them – as well as missile and drone stocks and production facilities. Meanwhile our Attorney General, Lord Hermer, reportedly advised Starmer that Britain’s participation in these operations would be illegal. Churchill received no such advice when he launched a 600 bomber raid against the German V-weapon missile development site at Peenemunde in 1943 and then, Israel-style, proceeded to pummel warehouses, storage facilities, rail tracks and launch sites connected with the V-weapons.

As well as re-discovering the political spine necessary to defend ourselves, we need to rapidly build up our missile defences. That’s not going to be achieved by decades of the glacial procurement processes for which the Ministry of Defence is infamous. It would be a good idea to follow the German example of buying Arrow off the shelf from Israel. But wait, the Government has an arms embargo against the Israelis.

Perhaps, however, we should not be listening to the pro-Hamas hordes on our streets (just four per cent of Brits supported Hamas in a YouGov poll in March, while over half said they had at least some sympathy for Israel). We might rather consider our own national security interests instead of performatively attacking an ally in need – an ally that can also help us.

It’s past time for joined up strategic thinking plus some Churchillian “action this day”.

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 26 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

Only those who don’t understand Middle East politics will take seriously reports that some Arab leaders and diplomats are concerned about Israel’s recent pre-emptive action against Iran. This mostly amounts to posturing for the benefit of their own populations. Many of their people are vehemently against Israel, for religious reasons but also to a large extent due to their governments’ own anti-Israel indoctrination from previous times.

It is a similar position to the one Western European governments find themselves in. Keir Starmer’s false criticisms and actions against Israel, such as arms suspension and sanctions, are surely due not to genuine concerns about Israel but the need to bolster support among Labour’s electorate, much of which is vehemently anti-Israel.

Arab leaders are well aware of the dangers they face from Iran. The ayatollahs are most vocal against Israel but they hate the Sunni Arab states just as much, if not more. This is more than mere rhetoric. Iran’s proxies have attacked the UAE and Saudi Arabia in recent years and Iran itself attacked US bases in Iraq and a few days ago in Qatar. Meanwhile Iran has for years been working to subvert Jordan and use it as a base of attack against Israel.

An Iranian nuclear capability threatened Arab countries as well as Israel. For years Israel has been understood to possess a nuclear capability. The Arabs knew that presented no threat to them. Only as the Iranian nuclear programme gained momentum did several countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, begin to seriously investigate acquiring their own nuclear capability.

With the exception of Iran itself and Syria, Israel has not attacked any country in the region and the Arabs know it will not. All of its offensive operations, in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, have been only against Iranian proxies that have attacked Israel.

In the case of Syria, which is formally at war with Israel, the destruction of much of its military capability was a necessary defensive action to counter a potentially developing threat.

And today Israel and the new regime in Syria have a constant dialogue with talk of al-Julani normalising relationships and even potentially joining the Abraham Accords. That of course remains precarious, to say the least, but is perhaps symptomatic of a new reality in the Middle East that is forming as a result of Israel’s strong defence against Iranian aggression.

With talk of Arab fears of Israel, what’s been happening on the other side of the ledger? When Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel in April last year, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain joined in its defence. And behind the scenes many Arab countries have been quietly cheering Israel on in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Some have provided practical support. They want Israel to prevail in Gaza because they also fear the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot. They know that if Hamas prevails it will encourage jihadists in their own countries.

The main motivation for Arab countries joining the Abraham Accords during Trump’s first administration was Israel’s military strength and Benjamin Netanyahu’s willingness to use it. That was bolstered by Obama’s apparent abandonment of America’s Sunni allies in favour of strengthening Iran. If America could no longer be relied upon to shield them from Iranian aggression, Israel could be. That has been redoubled in the recent 12-day war. This makes an expansion of the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries much more likely. They may have confidence in the current US administration, but what about the future? They may not fall in love with Israel but they do know that it has no choice but to remain the strong horse forever.

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 22 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

We should expect Iran to lash out after Trump’s bunker busters bombed its nuclear sites last night. Here in Israel, after an unusually missile-free 24 hours or so, we saw a barrage of up to 30 ballistic missiles fired at population centres.

Nothing new there: Israel has been targeted almost every night in the week since it launched its pre-emptive attack campaign and that is likely to continue until the ayatollahs decide discretion is the better part of valour or have their armoury wiped out or expended.

But now that America is fully in the game we should also expect retaliation against it and its other allies. That can come in various forms and may be immediate. Iran is known for strategic patience but at the same time might feel the need to act speedily to shore up a regime that has now been even further humiliated.

Already the Houthis, an Iranian proxy in Yemen, have cancelled their “ceasefire” with the US announced a few weeks ago. Iran also has proxies in Iraq that are heavily armed with missiles. They recently threatened to respond if the US attacked Iran.

Tehran itself, or any of these proxies, could attack energy infrastructure in Gulf states as well as US bases in the region. Iran, and the Houthis, could revert to their previous aggression against international shipping and potentially might block the Strait of Hormuz.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, once the most powerful terrorist organisation in the world, and also an Iranian proxy, was supposed to be a major player in exactly the situation Tehran faces today. But it was shattered by Israel last year and so far has not joined the fight for fear of being totally destroyed.

That may also account for an absence so far in this war of terrorist attacks beyond the region. Hezbollah has sleeper cells across Europe and in the US that were created under the direction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to retaliate against Israel’s and America’s allies if Iran came under fire. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 20 June 2025. © Richard Kemp

Many were astonished recently at Russia’s inability to defend its military aircraft when Ukraine carried out drone strikes against them deep inside Russian territory. Well now the inadequacy of our own air base security has been exposed, although thankfully in a far less serious way. For now.

RAF Brize Norton was attacked not by external forces but the enemy within. This was not a protest; it was a deliberate act of sabotage against military assets used to defend our country. What is shocking is that these saboteurs were able to access a highly defended base, put two air to air refuelling tankers out of action, and leave without being detected.

That should not have happened at any time. But right now military bases should have been on a substantially heightened state of alert. Whether or not we are providing any assistance to Israel in its defensive operations against Iran, Tehran certainly believes we are. They see us as a key ally of Israel and also attribute to Britain a disproportionate level of influence over US actions.

We are therefore a high priority target for Iranian terrorism. Don’t forget only weeks ago seven Iranians were arrested here on allegations of preparing terrorist attacks and other security offences. And in 2015 our security service disrupted an Iranian-backed bomb plot on the outskirts of London. The threat from Tehran has significantly increased since the latest arrests, with Iran under attack and the ayatollahs desperate to find effective ways of hitting back at Israel and its allies.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has long positioned sleeper cells in European countries including the UK for precisely the situation they find themselves in now. This was a known specific threat back in the early 2000s, when I was working for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee. We don’t know exactly their capabilities but it would be irresponsible not to assume that terrorist attacks in Britain could be initiated from Tehran at any time.

The fact that the British Government has repeatedly refused to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation suggests a dangerous degree of complacency. That should have happened a long time ago and certainly should happen now.

Beyond the very real and immediate threat from Iran there is Russia. Putin has identified Britain as its number one enemy in Europe. We have led the way in supporting Ukraine both economically and militarily. British intelligence and surveillance have been a critical element of Kyiv’s operations against Russia. Donated British tanks and other armoured vehicles are in Ukraine now and our long range missiles have been used to attack Russian forces both inside Ukraine and on Russian sovereign territory.

Furthermore, like Iran, Putin has previously ordered terrorist strikes on UK soil, including a nerve agent attack in Salisbury in 2018. Since then suspected Russian sabotage has been suspected here and cyber attacks carried out against government and private sector targets.

Security, even of military bases, can never be 100 per cent; but this penetration of RAF Brize Norton by the Palestine Action activists, brazen enough to cross the airfield on electric scooters, shows the most serious shortcomings. What if they had been armed not with paint but explosives?

Those planes could have been destroyed, not temporarily disabled, and airmen could have been killed. What we have seen amounts to an open invitation to even more serious saboteurs and terrorists to attack.

The threat is going to get worse, not only from Iran and Russia, but also from people here who hate our country and want to cause us harm. The thousands of illegal immigrants pouring in on small boats, with no way to screen, document or control them, adds yet another dimension.

All of Britain’s military bases, as well as other critical targets, should immediately be placed on a war footing, where they should have been at least since we started supporting Ukraine and even more so since Iran came under attack.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Israel and Iran are not ‘trading blows’ as some have phrased it. Israel is dealing strategic devastation on Iran, eliminating much of the terrorist regime’s military top brass and key nuclear scientists , and attacking nuclear weapons sites, air defence systems, and offensive drone and missile capabilities.

Meanwhile Iran is lashing out with drones and ballistic missiles, fired into Israel’s population centres, deliberately killing and wounding civilians in places like Tel Aviv, the most densely populated city in the country. Here, for the last two nights I have heard ballistic missiles roar overhead and seen Israel’s impressive air defences knock some of them out of the sky.

Those missiles that did get through told a terrifying story. What if just one of them had been armed with a nuclear warhead? Vast numbers would have been killed. That’s why Israel had to launch this pre-emptive assault on the Islamic Republic. Israeli intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency both saw that Iran was on the cusp of obtaining nuclear weapons capability.

Had they been allowed to get to that point we must assume they would use them in pursuit of their frequently declared intent of destroying Israel. That Jerusalem has nuclear weapons would not have deterred them.

The fanatical ayatollahs in Tehran wouldn’t care how many of their own people were sacrificed in pursuit of their religious duty of annihilating the Jewish state. As for the rest of the world, it should be grateful to Israel because a nuclear armed Iran would have threatened us all.

The ayatollahs have repeatedly shown their unbridled thirst for violence before, including killing British soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan and attempting terrorist attacks in our country.

All wars are terrible but sometimes they have to be fought to prevent an even worse evil.

Image: Mehr/Wikimedia Commons