Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 2 January 2025. © Richard Kemp

As 2025 begins, pessimism about Ukraine’s fate hangs in the air and the stench of appeasement on the wind. I find myself confused as to why, for it should be clear that the conflict has so far been an ignominious failure for President Vladimir Putin.

Unable to achieve the objective of subjugating his far smaller neighbour, he has instead inflicted enormous suffering on his own country and devastated its economy while undermining Russian prestige and strategic influence around the world.

Lest we forget that what was planned as a three-day ‘special operation’ has turned into a three-year nightmare. Russia has made only limited territorial gains and has been incapable of capturing even the whole of Donetsk Oblast in the east. Last year’s grand offensive to establish a buffer zone at Kharkiv to protect Russian territory only seized a few kilometres along the border. Missile attacks aimed at plunging Ukraine into near-constant cold and darkness have clearly failed.

Meanwhile Putin has lost control of parts of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces in the first invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War, failing to retake it despite enlisting North Korea as an ally in the conflict. Putin’s much-vaunted air defences have proven unable to halt Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots and ammunition warehouses inside Russia. Even the capital, Moscow, has been penetrated by locally-produced Ukrainian explosive drones. The Russian navy has been humiliated, losing control of the Black Sea and unable to strangle Ukraine’s grain exports. Upwards of 15 of its ships have been sunk by sea drones with many more damaged and the remainder of the fleet forced to retreat from the Crimean peninsula and the shores of Ukraine.

The human toll from Putin’s sclerotic campaign has also been immense. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces sustained 427,000 casualties in 2024 alone. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assesses that during the same period Russia seized 4,168 square kilometres; that means each square kilometre captured has cost more than 100 casualties.

The financial outlay on those casualties, with 6 per cent of the entire federal budget promised to support the wounded and compensate Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 19 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

Is Assad’s fall from power going to lead to the further dismemberment of Syria? What are the wider consequences for the Middle East?

First, it’s important to recognise the true dynamics behind this geopolitical shockwave.

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames the US and Israel for overthrowing Bashar al-Assad. Indeed President Joe Biden has proudly taken credit for what happened in Syria. That’s great for his legacy perhaps, but far from the truth. In reality, Biden tried to obstruct Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decisive campaign against Iran and its proxies – especially Hezbollah – which was directly responsible for the fall of Assad.

Instead of the US, Israel’s ‘partner’ in ousting Assad was Turkey. Whether there was any coordination between the two we can only speculate, but it was president Racip Erdogan that unleashed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which Turkey sponsors with Qatar, to spearhead the drive on Damascus.

The future of Syria is going to be influenced by Israel and Turkey beyond all other forces. The two countries are far from friends, but both have national security interests in Syria. Until Netanyahu ordered the shattering of Syria’s military hardware last week, the country had for decades represented the greatest direct conventional threat to Israel. Courtesy of Assad, Syria was also the principal supply route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Unlike Netanyahu, Erdogan has broader designs on the Middle East, including, at least in his mind’s eye, the resurrection of the Ottoman caliphate. He has close ties with Qatar and Sunni jihadist groups in the region, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which themselves may now gravitate further towards Ankara as Iran descends: an increasing threat for Israel and many of the Arab countries as his regional power strengthens.

More immediately the 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey are politically problematic for Erdogan and he wants them sent home.

But his highest priority is ending the idea of a Kurdish autonomous region in northern Syria, which he sees as a direct threat to Turkey Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 12 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

The Turkish foreign ministry has strongly condemned Israeli military action in Syria, including the IDF’s advance into the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. ‘Israel is once again displaying its occupation mentality,’ according to Ankara. Never mind that Turkey has invaded, illegally occupied, and ethnically cleansed large areas of northern Syria since 2016.

Jerusalem has temporarily deployed its forces into largely uninhabited areas of critical terrain to prevent Syrian rebels from using them to threaten Israel. It has also been conducting precision attacks against weaponry that would otherwise fall into jihadist hands.

Turkey, meanwhile, has carried out airstrikes against Kurds in northern Syria, while its proxies have killed and kidnapped civilians. Looting and burning homes, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has seized the northern towns of Tal Rifaat and Manbij, previously held by the US-backed and largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces which played a key role in vanquishing the Islamic State.

Turkey’s condemnation of Israel’s legitimate defensive actions is perhaps understandable for a regime that wants to deflect from its expansionist activity in Syria. Outspoken criticism has also been heaped on Israel’s actions by Iran, again hardly surprising as the ayatollahs lick the wounds inflicted by their ignominious withdrawal from Syria and the devastation wreaked on their number one proxy, Hezbollah, both from Israeli military assault and the loss of Syrian territory vital for its survival.

However, right on cue, the UN, never willing to miss an opportunity to attack Israel, also demanded that the IDF pull back from the buffer zone and cease its air strikes against Syrian military assets. France, too, leapt onto the anti-Israel bandwagon. Search as I might, I have seen only tumbleweed at the UN and across much of the media on Turkey’s egregious assaults against northern Syria in the last few days, even though there have been reports of several hundred killed.

Israel is accused of breaching the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria following the Yom Kippur War. Israel’s position is that, Continue reading →

Article published in The Sun, 9 December 2024. © Richard Kemp

Judged in isolation, the downfall of chemical murderer Assad is cause for satisfaction but the success of HTS in Syria is a major boost for fellow jihadists everywhere to strike — and that includes in Britain.

If Syria descends further into civil war and inter-factional fighting, as is likely, millions of refugees may also flood into Europe.

Among their number will be terrorists or those who later turn to terror.

HTS, which evolved from IS, al-Qaeda and Hamas, will be focused on gaining and holding on to control.

They claim not to have an interest in jihad beyond Syria but that should be disregarded.

Their priority will be a strike on Israel.

Their sights will also be on Jordan, where they will seek to replace the monarchy with Islamist rule.

Turkey and Qatar are both heavily involved in funding and directing HTS and Western countries should be leaning on them to restrain them.

We will also become increasingly dependent on Israeli intelligence to help protect us from terrorism.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 27 November 2024. © Richard Kemp

Whatever happened to Hezbollah’s solidarity with its jihadist brothers in Gaza? That was the pretext for launching its war of aggression against Israel the day after Hamas’s October 7 orgy of murder, rape, kidnapping and torture. Yet despite the Hezbollah leadership’s cast iron guarantees that ‘the Lebanon front will not stop before stopping the aggression on Gaza’, it seems they couldn’t even be bothered to mention the Gaza Strip in their desperation for a ceasefire. Nothing could be more telling of the once hubris-filled Hezbollah’s sorry state after a year of mauling by Israel.

Their leaders have been taken out by the dozen, huge numbers of fighters cut down, rockets and launchers blown to smithereens and all of the village strongholds in southern Lebanon razed to the ground. Many terrorists have fled for their lives into neighbouring Syria in the face of the IDF bulldozer. This has become the fate of the fanatical and murderous gangsters that until recently were thought of as the most powerful paramilitary force the world had ever seen.

The blow that this ceasefire represents to the Iranian regime is every bit as great. Hezbollah, painstakingly built up at enormous expense over 40 years, was their flagship, the most important part of the ‘ring of fire’ put in place to burn Israel to death. The vessel may not yet have been sunk but it is certainly filling up with water. Manning the pumps rather than continuing to fire broadsides was seen by the ayatollahs as the best way of salvaging something from the wreckage.

As the IDF continued to hammer Hezbollah, its remaining leadership also feared uprising by rival factions in Lebanon, where long standing animosities have been held at bay by its hitherto unchallenged stranglehold on the country. It’s not clear whether that might yet materialise but you can imagine the fear such a prospect would seize in the Supreme Leader and his henchmen who themselves are having to hold off growing dissent at home.

Adding to the woes of Hezbollah and its Iranian masters is the imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. He is going to usher in a new era in Middle East relations with every probability of less restraint towards Iran and its terror proxies. Recognising that peace and stability is achieved not by fear but by strength, Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for National Security Adviser, says: ‘We will not tolerate the status quo of Iran’s support for terrorism.’ Continue reading →

Article published in The Sunday Telegraph, 9 November 2024. © Richard Kemp

Since Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, the Left in the US and Europe have gone into meltdown. But nobody will feel a greater sense of foreboding than the leadership of the West’s enemies in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.

Most immediately, the return of Trump is Iran’s worst nightmare. The ayatollahs have enjoyed four years of financial and political benefits from Joe Biden’s policies of appeasement, which saw billions of dollars of frozen assets released, empowering Tehran on the world stage. Why else would Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have allowed or even ordered his terrorist proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to so viciously assault Israel in October last year, if he did not feel confident that a craven US administration would let him get away with it?

The Trump years were very different. As President, Trump had trashed Barack Obama’s irrational nuclear deal and piled on economic sanctions. He went on to order the elimination of Qasem Soleimani, chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, the organisation responsible for terrorism across the Middle East and around the world. Trump’s return to the White House therefore represented a clear and present threat to the continuation of the regime in Tehran.

The Supreme Leader couldn’t tolerate the return of his nemesis to the White House, and that is why the regime ordered Trump’s assassination in September. On Friday, the Department of Justice revealed charges against an Afghan immigrant to the US, Farhad Shakeri, who was allegedly tasked by the IRGC to murder the then US presidential candidate.

There is no question that Khamanei and the IRGC meant business. The regime has successfully carried out multiple political assassinations since it came to power in 1979, and has attempted to murder many others.

On its own, Iran’s intent to assassinate Donald Trump is a casus belli, demanding the decapitation of the regime. But Tehran’s aggression goes beyond even that. In the last year alone, Iran’s proxies have carried out almost 200 attacks against US forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. On 7 October last year, more than 40 Americans living in Israel were murdered by Iranian proxies and 12 kidnapped, some of Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 26 October 2024. © Richard Kemp

Israel’s attacks on Iran this morning were devastating. Dozens of combat planes flew 1,000 miles and are reported to have struck 20 military sites across the country. The primary targets were air defence systems and missile manufacturing facilities. This leaves Tehran more vulnerable to future strikes.

But there are two other consequences of Israel’s raids that are even more significant. First, the ayatollahs, already fearful of a direct, all-out war against a stronger power, will now be even more cowed and may be cautious about any retaliation. There was an indication of that in their statement that Israel had not crossed their red lines with this attack.

Second, they will have intensified fears for their top priority: the stability of their regime. There is significant dissent within the country and this latest dramatic sign of vulnerability will encourage those who seek to bring down the government. The dissidents will not be taken in by Tehran’s bluster that the Israeli strikes were blunted by air defences and caused only limited damage, a lie underlined by threats to Iranian citizens of lengthy prison sentences if they share footage of the strikes.

Nor will they believe the regime’s assertions that Israel was deterred by their warnings against the more significant attack that some had expected in response to repeated Iranian aggression, including the failed barrage of 200 missiles on October 1. Israel’s raid was not powerful enough to deal with the Iranian threat but that has nothing to do with any warnings from Tehran.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, knows only too well that a decisive strike is required. But his military actions have to be calibrated according to what will be tolerated in Washington. Fighting a war on seven battle fronts, plus a hugely important eighth front — political warfare fought in the UN, international courts, and capitals around the world — Israel is heavily dependent on continued US support. Continue reading →

Article published in The Daily Telegraph, 21 October 2024. © Richard Kemp

The final moments of Yahya Sinwar’s malevolent life are an allegory for the current balance of military power in Gaza. The once mighty terrorist leader was filmed skulking into a building in Rafah like the fugitive he was. His last, dazed act before a tank shell slammed into the room was to feebly toss a stick towards the watching drone.

Where were his layers of surveillance and security, the bodyguards to whisk him away when danger loomed? All gone, shattered by Israel’s ferocious assaults, with even Hamas’s most senior terrorist forced above ground by the IDF’s progressive destruction of his protective tunnels.

The devastation wreaked on Hamas over the last 12 months has left it in dire straits. Its organised structure has been decimated and its military campaign reduced to small-scale guerrilla operations with the priority on survival rather than offensive action. Many of the senior terrorist commanders have been killed. With his chain of command largely ineffective, fearful of using any form of electronic communications and an inability any longer to transit large parts of the Strip above or below ground, in latter days Sinwar could no longer exercise meaningful control over his troops. It is doubtful he could effectively communicate with Hamas elements outside Gaza either.

But his continued existence was still important. He was the embodiment of Hamas’s ‘resistance’ against Israel, the architect of the greatest achievement the organisation has ever had or is now likely to have – the mass murder, rape, torture and kidnapping of Jews on 7 October last year. Indeed he was a hero to the many Gazans who rejoiced in this bestial slaughter. For the Hamas terrorists who have survived until now he has been an inspiration and an example.

His death therefore will be a major psychological blow which in some will undermine the will to continue the fight. Since Israel’s offensive began to gain momentum we have seen large numbers of cornered terrorists surrender and others decide discretion is the better part of valour, discarding their weapons and melting back into the civilian population. I would expect that now to accelerate. Continue reading →